Related papers: Insights from Optimal Pandemic Shielding in a Mult…
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential threat of future epidemics caused by novel viruses, we developed a flexible framework for modeling disease intervention effects. This tool is intended to aid decision makers at multiple…
In the absence of any available vaccines or drugs, prevention of the spread of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is being achieved by putting many mitigation measures in place. It is indispensable to have robust and reliable ways…
India was under a grave threat from the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic particularly in the beginning of May 2021. The situation appeared rather gloomy as the number of infected individuals/active cases had increased alarmingly during…
When effective medical treatment and vaccination are not available, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, home quarantine and far-reaching shutdown of public life are the only available strategies to prevent the spread…
Since the end of 2019, COVID-19 has significantly affected the lives of people around the world. Towards the end of 2020, several COVID-19 vaccine candidates with relatively high efficacy have been reported in the final phase of clinical…
Non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), and in particular social distancing, in conjunction with the advent of effective vaccines at the end of 2020, aspired for the development of a protective immunity shield against the spread of…
I estimate the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission rate is heterogeneous across countries and far exceeds the recovery rate, which enables a fast spread. In the…
The SARS-CoV-2 infectious outbreak has rapidly spread across the globe and precipitated varying policies to effectuate physical distancing to ameliorate its impact. In this study, we propose a new hybrid machine learning model, SIRNet, for…
This work introduces a novel epidemiological model that simultaneously considers multiple viral strains, reinfections due to waning immunity response over time and an optimal control formulation. This enables us to derive optimal mitigation…
In this paper, we propose a new real-time differential virus transmission model, which can give more accurate and robust short-term predictions of COVID-19 transmitted infectious disease with benefits of near-term trend projection.…
Objectives. Public health officials need tools to assist with anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We built a modeling tool to aid practicing public health officials with estimating healthcare…
The paper addresses the question of lives versus livelihood in an SIRD model augmented with a macroeconomic structure. The constraints on the availability of health facilities - both infrastructure and health workers determine the…
We use a simple SIR-like epidemic model which integrates known age-contact patterns for the United States to model the effect of age-targeted mitigation strategies for a COVID-19-like epidemic. We find that, among strategies which end with…
Social distancing and lockdown are the two main non-pharmaceutical interventions being used by the UK government to contain and control the COVID-19 epidemic; these are being applied uniformly across the entire country, even though the…
The Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model is one of the standard models of disease spreading. Here we analyse an extended SEIR model that accounts for asymptomatic carriers, believed to play an important role…
COVID-19 has shown a relatively low mortality rate in young healthy individuals, with the majority of this group being asymptomatic or having mild symptoms, while the severity of the disease among individuals with underlying health…
The current COVID-19 pandemic has proven that proper control and prevention of infectious disease require creating and enforcing the appropriate public policies. One critical policy imposed by the policymakers is encouraging the population…
Motivated by the ongoing pandemic COVID-19, we propose a closed-loop framework that combines inference from testing data, learning the parameters of the dynamics and optimal resource allocation for controlling the spread of the…
The years 2020 and 2021 were characterized by the COVID-19 pandemic. The true impact of the pandemic on populations' health and life still has to be fully discerned. The main objective of this work is to discern the true impact of COVID-19…
The COVID-19 pandemic and the mitigation policies implemented in response to it have resulted in economic losses worldwide. Attempts to understand the relationship between economics and epidemiology has lead to a new generation of…