Related papers: Adaptive Bernstein Copulas and Risk Management

Stein unbiased risk estimation is generalized twice, from the Gaussian shift model to nonparametric families of smooth densities, and from the quadratic risk to more general divergence type distances. The development relies on a connection…

We propose a Bayesian approach using improper priors for hierarchical linear mixed models with flexible random effects and residual error distributions. The error distribution is modelled using scale mixtures of normals, which can capture…

Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are well-established tools for probabilistic exploration of dependence structures using precision matrices. We develop a Bayesian method to incorporate covariate information in this GGMs setup in a nonlinear…

Gaussian scale mixtures are constructed as Gaussian processes with a random variance. They have non-Gaussian marginals and can exhibit asymptotic dependence unlike Gaussian processes, which are asymptotically independent except in the case…

Our article addresses the problem of flexibly estimating a multivariate density while also attempting to estimate its marginals correctly. We do so by proposing two new estimators that try to capture the best features of mixture of normals…

This article deals with the generalization performance of margin multi-category classifiers, when minimal learnability hypotheses are made. In that context, the derivation of a guaranteed risk is based on the handling of capacity measures…

This study investigates the efficacy of Conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machines (CRBMs) for modeling high-dimensional financial time series and detecting systemic risk regimes. We extend the classical application of static Restricted…

For modeling multivariate financial time series we propose a single factor copula model together with stochastic volatility margins. This model generalizes single factor models relying on the multivariate normal distribution and allows for…

Using Bayesian experimental design techniques, we have shown that for a single two-level quantum mechanical system under strong (projective) measurement, the dynamical parameters of a model Hamiltonian can be estimated with exponentially…

We construct the COpula Recursive Tree (CORT) estimator: a flexible, consistent, piecewise linear estimator of a copula, leveraging the patchwork copula formalization and various piecewise constant density estimators. While the patchwork…

This paper studies convergence properties of multivariate distributions constructed by endowing empirical margins with a copula. This setting includes Latin Hypercube Sampling with dependence, also known as the Iman--Conover method. The…

A data-driven block thresholding procedure for wavelet regression is proposed and its theoretical and numerical properties are investigated. The procedure empirically chooses the block size and threshold level at each resolution level by…

Copulas allow to learn marginal distributions separately from the multivariate dependence structure (copula) that links them together into a density function. Vine factorizations ease the learning of high-dimensional copulas by constructing…

Many applications in risk analysis, especially in environmental sciences, require the estimation of the dependence among multivariate maxima. A way to do this is by inferring the Pickands dependence function of the underlying extreme-value…

We consider the estimation of large covariance and precision matrices from high-dimensional sub-Gaussian or heavier-tailed observations with slowly decaying temporal dependence. The temporal dependence is allowed to be long-range so with…

In actuarial research, a task of particular interest and importance is to predict the loss cost for individual risks so that informative decisions are made in various insurance operations such as underwriting, ratemaking, and capital…

Instance-wise feature selection and ranking methods can achieve a good selection of task-friendly features for each sample in the context of neural networks. However, existing approaches that assume feature subsets to be independent are…

We propose a class of dynamic vine copula models. This is an extension of static vine copulas and a generalization of dynamic C-vine and D-vine copulas studied by Almeida et al (2016) and Goel and Mehra (2019). Within this class, we allow…

In the nonparametric regression setting, we construct an estimator which is a continuous function interpolating the data points with high probability, while attaining minimax optimal rates under mean squared risk on the scale of H\"older…

We study offline change-point estimation for time series data exhibiting nonlinear serial dependence. To address this problem, we propose a copula-based Markov chain model with Weibull marginal distributions, which is suitable for modeling…