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Ending the HIV/AIDS pandemic is among the Sustainable Development Goals for the next decade. In order to overcome the gap between the need for care and the available resources, better understanding of HIV epidemics is needed to guide policy…
Like many chronic diseases, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is managed over time at regular clinic visits. At each visit, patient features are assessed, treatments are prescribed, and a subsequent visit is scheduled. There is a need for…
While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country,…
Incidence estimation of HIV infection can be performed using recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) results from a cross-sectional sample. This allows practitioners to understand population trends in the HIV epidemic without having to…
Countries officially record the number of COVID-19 cases based on medical tests of a subset of the population with unknown participation bias. For prevalence estimation, the official information is typically discarded and, instead, small…
Reliable estimation of spatio-temporal trends in population-level HIV incidence is becoming an increasingly critical component of HIV prevention policy-making. However, direct measurement is nearly impossible. Current, widely used models…
We present a new analysis of relationships between disease incidence and the prevalence of an experimentally defined state of `recent infection'. This leads to a clean separation between biological parameters (properties of disease…
The topic of this paper is prevalence estimation from the perspective of active information. Prevalence among tested individuals has an upward bias under the assumption that individuals' willingness to be tested for the disease increases…
To make informative public policy decisions in battling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to know the disease prevalence in a population. There are two intertwined difficulties in estimating this prevalence based on testing…
Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been established as an effective tool for preventing HIV infection among men who have sex with men (MSM). However, there is the possibility of PrEP usage leading to increased sexual partners and increased…
Causal effects are often characterized with averages, which can give an incomplete picture of the underlying counterfactual distributions. Here we consider estimating the entire counterfactual density and generic functionals thereof. We…
Key populations at high risk of HIV infection are critical for understanding and monitoring HIV epidemics, but global estimation is hampered by sparse, uneven data. We analyze data from 199 countries for female sex workers (FSW), men who…
Estimating new HIV infections is significant yet challenging due to the difficulty in distinguishing between recent and long-term infections. We demonstrate that HIV recency status (recent v.s. long-term) could be determined from the…
Safe and effective preventive vaccines have the potential to help stem the HIV epidemic. The efficacy of such vaccines is typically measured in randomized, double-blind phase IIb/III trials and described as a reduction in newly acquired HIV…
Background: After a decade of a treatment as prevention (TasP) strategy based on progressive HIV testing scale-up and earlier treatment, a reduction in the estimated number of new infections in men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) in England had…
Missing data is a recurrent issue in epidemiology where the infection process may be partially observed. Approximate Bayesian Computation, an alternative to data imputation methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo integration, is proposed…
Evaluation of HIV large scale interventions programme is becoming increasingly important, but impact estimates frequently hinge on knowledge of changes in behaviour such as the frequency of condom use (CU) over time, or other self-reported…
Men who have sex with men (MSM) remain disproportionately affected by HIV, yet optimizing Pre-exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) distribution remains a public health challenge. Current guidelines and most modelling studies do not incorporate…
New methods and theory have recently been developed to nonparametrically estimate cumulative incidence functions for competing risks survival data subject to current status censoring. In particular, the limiting distribution of the…
A simple deterministic model is proposed to represent the basic aspects concerning the effects of different antiretroviral treatment schedules on HIV incidence and prevalence of affected populations. The model mimics current treatment…