Related papers: Modern Monte Carlo Methods for Efficient Uncertain…

Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method is a useful numerical tool for pricing and hedging of complex financial derivatives. These problems are usually of high dimensionality and discontinuities. The two factors may significantly deteriorate the…

CIPM published the Supplement I for GUM in 2008 as not only an alternative approach to estimate the uncertainty for a given calibration measurement but also as a proper uncertainty estimation one, whenever any of the conditions imposed in…

The practice of uncertainty quantification (UQ) validation, notably in machine learning for the physico-chemical sciences, rests on several graphical methods (scattering plots, calibration curves, reliability diagrams and confidence curves)…

Understanding decisions made by neural networks is key for the deployment of intelligent systems in real world applications. However, the opaque decision making process of these systems is a disadvantage where interpretability is essential.…

Sampling from complicated probability distributions is a hard computational problem arising in many fields, including statistical physics, optimization, and machine learning. Quantum computers have recently been used to sample from…

Uncertainty propagation of large scale discrete supply chains can be prohibitive when a large number of events occur during the simulated period and discrete event simulations (DES) are costly. We present a time bucket method to approximate…

Traditional neural networks provide deterministic predictions without inherent uncertainty estimates. While Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer a principled approach to uncertainty quantification, their computational complexity limits…

We propose a control variate multilevel Monte Carlo method for the kinetic BGK model of the Boltzmann equation subject to random inputs. The method combines a multilevel Monte Carlo technique with the computation of the optimal control…

In statistical analysis, Monte Carlo (MC) stands as a classical numerical integration method. When encountering challenging sample problem, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a commonly employed method. However, the MCMC estimator is biased…

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) approach usually works well when estimating the expected value of a quantity which is a Lipschitz function of intermediate quantities, but if it is a discontinuous function it can lead to a much slower…

The subsurface flow is usually subject to uncertain porous media structures. In most cases, however, we only have partial knowledge about the porous media properties. A common approach is to model the uncertain parameters of porous media as…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is vital to safety-critical model-based analyses, but the widespread adoption of sophisticated UQ methods is limited by technical complexity. In this paper, we introduce UM-Bridge (the UQ and Modeling…

In this paper we propose a general framework for the uncertainty quantification of quantities of interest for high-contrast single-phase flow problems. It is based on the generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM) and multilevel…

We introduce a novel Multi-Order Monte Carlo approach for uncertainty quantification in the context of multiscale time-dependent partial differential equations. The new framework leverages Implicit-Explicit Runge-Kutta time integrators to…

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is widely regarded as the primary safeguard for deploying Large Language Models (LLMs) in high-stakes domains. However, we argue that the field suffers from a category error: mainstream UQ methods for LLMs…

This study presents a comparative analysis of Monte Carlo (MC) and quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods in the context of derivative pricing, emphasizing convergence rates and the curse of dimensionality. After a concise overview of traditional…

The safety concern for unmanned systems, namely the concern for the potential casualty caused by system abnormalities, has been a bottleneck for their development, especially in populated areas. Evidently, the collision between the unmanned…

We study the application of a quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) method to a class of semi-linear parabolic reaction-diffusion partial differential equations used to model tumor growth. Mathematical models of tumor growth are largely phenomenological…

We study statistical model checking of continuous-time stochastic hybrid systems. The challenge in applying statistical model checking to these systems is that one cannot simulate such systems exactly. We employ the multilevel Monte Carlo…

Multifidelity Monte Carlo methods rely on a hierarchy of possibly less accurate but statistically correlated simplified or reduced models, in order to accelerate the estimation of statistics of high-fidelity models without compromising the…