Related papers: Mixed--frequency quantile regressions to forecast …
This paper introduces \emph{biased mean regression}, estimating the \emph{biased mean}, i.e., $\mathbb{E}[Y] + x$, where $x \in \mathbb{R}$. The approach addresses a fundamental statistical problem that covers numerous applications. For…
In multivariate extreme value theory (MEVT), the focus is on analysis outside of the observable sampling zone, which implies that the region of interest is associated to high risk levels. This work provides tools to include directional…
In this paper, we generalize the parametric delta-VaR method from portfolios with normally distributed risk factors to portfolios with elliptically distributed ones. We treat both the expected shortfall and the Value-at-Risk of such…
This paper introduces a unified approach for modeling high-frequency financial data that can accommodate both the continuous-time jump-diffusion and discrete-time realized GARCH model by embedding the discrete realized GARCH structure in…
Estimation of the value-at-risk (VaR) of a large portfolio of assets is an important task for financial institutions. As the joint log-returns of asset prices can often be projected to a latent space of a much smaller dimension, the use of…
We study submodularity for law-invariant functionals, with particular attention to convex risk measures. Expected losses are modular, and certainty equivalents are submodular exactly when the loss function is convex. Law-invariant coherent…
In this note, we comment on the relevance of elicitability for backtesting risk measure estimates. In particular, we propose the use of Diebold-Mariano tests, and show how they can be implemented for Expected Shortfall (ES), based on the…
Various events in the nature, economics and in other areas force us to combine the study of extremes with regression and other methods. A useful tool for reducing the role of nuisance regression, while we are interested in the shape or…
The paper explores the concept of the \emph{expectile risk measure} within the framework of the Fundamental Risk Quadrangle (FRQ) theory. According to the FRQ theory, a quadrangle comprises four stochastic functions associated with a random…
The estimation of the covariance function of a stochastic process, or signal, is of integral importance for a multitude of signal processing applications. In this work, we derive closed-form expressions for the variance of covariance…
Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are two of the most widely used approaches in portfolio risk management to estimate potential market value losses under adverse market moves. VaR quantifies potential loss in value over a specified…
Motivated by two case studies using primary care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we describe statistical methods that facilitate the analysis of tall data, with very large numbers of observations. Our focus is on…
We describe and analyze a variance reduction approach for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling that accelerates the estimation of statistics of computationally expensive simulation models using an ensemble of models with lower cost. These lower cost…
We address the problem of estimating time and frequency shifts of a known waveform in the presence of multiple measurement vectors (MMVs). This problem naturally arises in radar imaging and wireless communications. Specifically, a signal…
A mixture of experts models the conditional density of a response variable using a mixture of regression models with covariate-dependent mixture weights. We extend the finite mixture of experts model by allowing the parameters in both the…
Value at Risk (VaR) is a quantitative measure used to evaluate the risk linked to the potential loss of investment or capital. Estimation of the VaR entails the quantification of prospective losses in a portfolio of investments, using a…
Constructing a more effective value at risk (VaR) prediction model has long been a goal in financial risk management. In this paper, we propose a novel parametric approach and provide a standard paradigm to demonstrate the modeling. We…
The issue related to the quantification of the tail risk of cryptocurrencies is considered in this paper. The statistical methods used in the study are those concerning recent developments in Extreme Value Theory (EVT) for weakly dependent…
We present a general framework for a comparative theory of variability measures, with a particular focus on the recently introduced one-parameter families of inter-Expected Shortfall differences and inter-expectile differences, that are…
Randomness in financial markets requires modern and robust multivariate models of risk measures. This paper proposes a new approach for modeling multivariate risk measures under Wasserstein barycenters of probability measures supported on…