Related papers: Gamblers Learn from Experience
In this study, we analyzed one month of Call Detail Records, covering Budapest in June, 2016. During this observation period, the 2016 UEFA European Football Championship took place, where the Hungarian national football team did well,…
This paper considers the use of observed and predicted match statistics as inputs to forecasts of the outcomes of football matches. It is shown that, were it possible to know the match statistics in advance, highly informative forecasts of…
We study the problem of designing consistent sequential two-sample tests in a nonparametric setting. Guided by the principle of testing by betting, we reframe this task into that of selecting a sequence of payoff functions that maximize the…
We discuss the simulations of the norm game between players at nodes of a directed random network. The final boldness of the players can vary with the initial one as the $\Theta$ function. One of the conditions of this behaviour is that the…
The number of registered SIM cards and active mobile phone subscribers in Zambia in 2020 surpassed the population of the country. This clearly shows that mobile phones in Zambia have become part of everyday life easing not only the way…
Decision making in uncertain and risky environments is a prominent area of research. Standard economic theories fail to fully explain human behaviour, while a potentially promising alternative may lie in the direction of Reinforcement…
The main purpose of this study is to introduce a semi-classical model describing betting scenarios in which, at variance with conventional approaches, the payoff of the gambler is encoded into the internal degrees of freedom of a quantum…
The influence of a fixed number of agents with the same fixed behavior on the dynamics of the minority game is studied. Alternatively, the system studied can be considered the minority game with a change in the comfort threshold away from…
A decision maker observes the evolving state of the world while constantly trying to predict the next state given the history of past states. The ability to benefit from such predictions depends not only on the ability to recognize patters…
The law of maturity is the belief that less-observed events are becoming mature and, therefore, more likely to occur in the future. Previous studies have shown that the assumption of infinite exchangeability contradicts the law of maturity.…
With the popularity of cryptocurrencies and the remarkable development of blockchain technology, decentralized applications emerged as a revolutionary force for the Internet. Meanwhile, decentralized applications have also attracted intense…
In this expository note, we give a simple proof that a gambler repeating a game with positive expected value never goes broke with a positive probability. This does not immediately follow from the strong law of large numbers or other basic…
Recommender systems help people cope with the problem of information overload. A recently proposed adaptive news recommender model [Medo et al., 2009] is based on epidemic-like spreading of news in a social network. By means of agent-based…
We study the problems of sequential nonparametric two-sample and independence testing. Sequential tests process data online and allow using observed data to decide whether to stop and reject the null hypothesis or to collect more data,…
This paper explores the significant history of professional football and the betting industry, tracing its evolution from clandestine beginnings to a lucrative multi-million-pound enterprise. Initiated by the legalization of gambling in…
In this study, the authors develop a structural model that combines a macro diffusion model with a micro choice model to control for the effect of social influence on the mobile app choices of customers over app stores. Social influence…
This paper presents a data-driven statistical framework to quantify the role of skill in games, addressing the long-standing question of whether success in a game is predominantly driven by skill or chance. We analyze player level data from…
We add the assumption that players know their opponents' payoff functions and rationality to a model of non-equilibrium learning in signaling games. Agents are born into player roles and play against random opponents every period.…
Antisocial behavior can be contagious, spreading from individual to individual and rippling through social networks. Moreover, it can spread not only through third-party influence from observation, just like innovations or individual…
The stochastic multi-armed bandit model captures the tradeoff between exploration and exploitation. We study the effects of competition and cooperation on this tradeoff. Suppose there are $k$ arms and two players, Alice and Bob. In every…