Related papers: Gamblers Learn from Experience
Many households in developing countries lack formal financial histories, making it difficult for firms to extend credit, and for potential borrowers to receive it. However, many of these households have mobile phones, which generate rich…
Testing by betting has been a cornerstone of the game-theoretic statistics literature. One bets against the null hypothesis, and the accumulated wealth $W_t$ quantifies the evidence against the null hypothesis after $t$ rounds, and the null…
Recently, mobile operators in many developing economies have launched "Mobile Money" platforms that deliver basic financial services over the mobile phone network. While many believe that these services can improve the lives of the poor, a…
The study examines how Gacha games affect gambling practices by analyzing when players start playing and how often they play and how much money they spend on games. The modified Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI) serves as the research…
This study examines whether following popular Nigerian sports betting influencers on social media is a financially sound strategy. To avoid the survivorship bias that occurs when influencers only share their winning bets, we tracked 5,467…
What would you do if you were invited to play a game where you were given \$25 and allowed to place bets for 30 minutes on a coin that you were told was biased to come up heads 60% of the time? This is exactly what we did, gathering 61…
We formulate an adaptive version of Kelly's horse model in which the gambler learns from past race results using Bayesian inference. A known asymptotic scaling for the difference between the growth rate of the gambler and the optimal growth…
Access to financial institutions is difficult in developing economies and especially for the poor. However, the widespread adoption of mobile phones has enabled the development of mobile money systems that deliver financial services through…
Mobile banking apps have transformed the banking sector by offering customers with convenient, secure and easily accessible financial services. Even so, it is crucial for banks and the mobile banking apps developers to understand the…
Sports betting's recent federal legalisation in the USA coincides with the golden age of machine learning. If bettors can leverage data to reliably predict the probability of an outcome, they can recognise when the bookmaker's odds are in…
Estimating win probability is one of the classic modeling tasks of sports analytics. Many widely used win probability estimators use machine learning to fit the relationship between a binary win/loss outcome variable and certain game-state…
We give elementary examples within a framework for studying decisions under uncertainty where probabilities are only roughly known. The framework, in gambling terms, is that the size of a bet is proportional to the gambler's perceived…
High quality census data are not always available in developing countries. Instead, mobile phone data are becoming a trending proxy to evaluate population density, activity and social characteristics. They offer additional advantages for…
With the vast amount of data collected on football and the growth of computing abilities, many games involving decision choices can be optimized. The underlying rule is the maximization of an expected utility of outcomes and the law of…
This study identifies the specific conditions under which large language models exhibit human-like gambling addiction patterns, providing critical insights into their decision-making mechanisms and AI safety. We analyze LLM decision-making…
This paper investigates the dynamics of gambling and how they can affect risk-taking behavior in regions not explored by Kahneman and Tversky's Prospect Theory. Specifically, it questions why extreme outcomes do not fit the theory and…
We study analytically and numerically Minority Games in which agents may invest in different assets (or markets), considering both the canonical and the grand-canonical versions. We find that the likelihood of agents trading in a given…
Every interaction of a living organism with its environment involves the placement of a bet. Armed with partial knowledge about a stochastic world, the organism must decide its next step or near-term strategy, an act that implicitly or…
Globally, two billion people and more than half of the poorest adults do not use formal financial services. Consequently, there is increased emphasis on developing financial technology that can facilitate access to financial products for…
Online lending, a phenomenon which is becoming mainstream due to the migration of consumer finance to the Internet and the adoption of AI based lending models, is an example of learning by doing. This paper studies optimal policies for a…