Related papers: Maximum approximate likelihood estimation of gener…
We use statistical learning methods to construct an adaptive state estimator for nonlinear stochastic systems. Optimal state estimation, in the form of a Kalman filter, requires knowledge of the system's process and measurement uncertainty.…
The problem of situational awareness (SAW) is investigated from the probabilistic modeling point of view. Taking the situation as a hidden variable, we introduce a hidden Markov model (HMM) and an extended state space model (ESSM) to…
Suppose that we are given a time series where consecutive samples are believed to come from a probabilistic source, that the source changes from time to time and that the total number of sources is fixed. Our objective is to estimate the…
In this paper, approximate Linear Minimum Variance (LMV) filters for continuous-discrete state space models are introduced. The filters are obtained by means of a recursive approximation to the predictions for the first two moments of the…
We propose a unified framework that extends the inference methods for classical hidden Markov models to continuous settings, where both the hidden states and observations occur in continuous time. Two different settings are analyzed: hidden…
Recently, there has been a surge of interest in using spectral methods for estimating latent variable models. However, it is usually assumed that the distribution of the observations conditioned on the latent variables is either discrete or…
Estimating hidden states in dynamical systems, also known as optimal filtering, is a long-standing problem in various fields of science and engineering. In this paper, we introduce a general filtering framework, \textbf{LLM-Filter}, which…
We consider quasi maximum likelihood (QML) estimation for general non-Gaussian discrete-ime linear state space models and equidistantly observed multivariate L\'evy-driven continuoustime autoregressive moving average (MCARMA) processes. In…
We propose a simple model for sample space reducing (SSR) stochastic process, where the dynamical variable denoting the size of the state space is continuous. In general, one can view the model as a multiplicative stochastic process, with a…
In this paper, we prove that finite state space non parametric hidden Markov models are identifiable as soon as the transition matrix of the latent Markov chain has full rank and the emission probability distributions are linearly…
Probabilistic programming languages can simplify the development of machine learning techniques, but only if inference is sufficiently scalable. Unfortunately, Bayesian parameter estimation for highly coupled models such as regressions and…
Structured state-space models (SSMs) such as S4, stemming from the seminal work of Gu et al., are gaining popularity as effective approaches for modeling sequential data. Deep SSMs demonstrate outstanding performance across a diverse set of…
Gaussian processes provide a flexible framework for forecasting, removing noise, and interpreting long temporal datasets. State space modelling (Kalman filtering) enables these non-parametric models to be deployed on long datasets by…
Estimating latent epidemic states and model parameters from partially observed, noisy data remains a major challenge in infectious disease modeling. State-space formulations provide a coherent probabilistic framework for such inference, yet…
We consider the problem of approximating optimal in the Minimum Mean Squared Error (MMSE) sense nonlinear filters in a discrete time setting, exploiting properties of stochastically convergent state process approximations. More…
State-space models can be used to incorporate subject knowledge on the underlying dynamics of a time series by the introduction of a latent Markov state-process. A user can specify the dynamics of this process together with how the state…
We consider the problem of estimating parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with discrete-time observations that are either completely or partially observed. The transition density between two observations is generally…
We introduce Variational State-Space Filters (VSSF), a new method for unsupervised learning, identification, and filtering of latent Markov state space models from raw pixels. We present a theoretically sound framework for latent state…
In this article we focus on Maximum Likelihood estimation (MLE) for the static parameters of hidden Markov models (HMMs). We will consider the case where one cannot or does not want to compute the conditional likelihood density of the…
We report an exact likelihood computation for Linear Gaussian Markov processes that is more scalable than existing algorithms for complex models and sparsely sampled signals. Better scaling is achieved through elimination of repeated…