Related papers: Testing with p*-values: Between p-values, mid p-va…
Since its debut in the 18th century, the P-value has been an important part of hypothesis testing-based scientific discoveries. As the statistical engine accelerates, questions are beginning to be raised, asking to what extent scientific…
$P$-values have been the focus of considerable criticism based on various considerations. Still, the $P$-value represents one of the most commonly used statistical tools. When assessing the suitability of a single hypothesized distribution,…
We explain the concept of p-values presupposing only rudimentary probability theory. We also use the occasion to introduce the notion of p-function, so that p-values are values of a p-function. The explanation is restricted to the discrete…
Two-sided statistical tests and p-values are well defined only when the test statistic in question has a symmetric distribution. A new two-sided p-value called conditional p-value $P_C$ is introduced here. It is closely related to the…
This article addresses issues of model criticism and model comparison in Bayesian contexts, and focusses on the use of the so-called posterior predictive p-values (ppp values). These involve a general discrepancy or conflict measure and…
A standard practice in statistical hypothesis testing is to mention the p-value alongside the accept/reject decision. We show the advantages of mentioning an e-value instead. With p-values, it is not clear how to use an extreme observation…
Conformal prediction is a powerful framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification. The standard approach to conformal prediction relies on comparing the ranks of prediction scores: under exchangeability, the rank of a future…
For a given testing problem, let $U_1,...,U_n$ be individually valid and conditionally on the data i.i.d.\ P-variables (often called P-values). For example, the data could come in groups, and each $U_i$ could be based on subsampling just…
In an attempt to provide an answer to the increasing criticism against p-values and to bridge the gap between statistical inference and prediction modelling, we introduce the probability of improved prediction (PIP). In general, the PIP is…
Null hypothesis significance tests and p values are widely used despite very strong arguments against their use in many contexts. Confidence intervals are often recommended as an alternative, but these do not achieve the objective of…
The e-value is swiftly rising in prominence in many applications of hypothesis testing and multiple testing, yet its relationship to classical testing theory remains elusive. We unify e-values and classical testing into a single 'continuous…
P-value functions are modern statistical tools that unify effect estimation and hypothesis testing and can provide alternative point and interval estimates compared to standard meta-analysis methods, using any of the many $p$-value…
A recurring debate in the philosophy of statistics concerns what, exactly, should count as a measure of evidence for or against a given hypothesis. P-values, likelihood ratios, and Bayes factors all have their defenders. In this paper we…
Forecasting and forecast evaluation are inherently sequential tasks. Predictions are often issued on a regular basis, such as every hour, day, or month, and their quality is monitored continuously. However, the classical statistical tools…
The customary use of P-values in scientific research has been attacked as being ill-conceived, and the utility of P-values has been derided. This paper reviews common misconceptions about P-values and their alleged deficits as indices of…
We address the problem of testing conditional mean and conditional variance for non-stationary data. We build e-values and p-values for four types of non-parametric composite hypotheses with specified mean and variance as well as other…
Many multiple testing procedures make use of the p-values from the individual pairs of hypothesis tests, and are valid if the p-value statistics are independent and uniformly distributed under the null hypotheses. However, it has recently…
We discuss systematically two versions of confidence regions: those based on p-values and those based on e-values, a recent alternative to p-values. Both versions can be applied to multiple hypothesis testing, and in this paper we are…
P-values are widely used in both the social and natural sciences to quantify the statistical significance of observed results. The recent surge of big data research has made the p-value an even more popular tool to test the significance of…
After some general remarks about the interrelation between philosophical and statistical thinking, the discussion centres largely on significance tests. These are defined as the calculation of $p$-values rather than as formal procedures for…