Related papers: A comparison study of extrapolation models and emp…
Studying the ambient solar wind, a continuous pressure-driven plasma flow emanating from our Sun, is an important component of space weather research. The ambient solar wind flows in interplanetary space determine how solar storms evolve…
The outer heliosphere is a dynamic region shaped largely by the interaction between the solar wind and the interstellar medium. While interplanetary magnetic field and plasma observations by the Voyager spacecraft have significantly…
Previous ambient solar wind (SW) validation studies have reported on discrepancies between modeled and observed SW conditions at L1. They indicated that a major source of discrepancies stems from how we model the solar corona. Thus,…
The solar wind (SW) is a vital component of space weather, providing a background for solar transients such as coronal mass ejections, stream interaction regions, and energetic particles propagating toward Earth. Accurate prediction of…
Geometric modelling of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) is a widely used tool for assessing their kinematic evolution. Furthermore, techniques based on geometric modelling, such as ELEvoHI, are being developed into forecast tools for space…
Inspired by the concept of relativity of simultaneity used in the theory of special relativity, a new approach is proposed to simulate future solar wind conditions at any point in the inner solar system. An important distinctive feature of…
In order to address the growing need for more accurate space weather predictions, a new model named EUHFORIA (EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset) was recently developed (Pomoell and Poedts, 2018). We present first results…
Solar wind back-mapping is a combination of ballistic mapping and magnetic mapping. By examining the different model ingredients that can affect the derived back-mapped position, we aim to provide a more precise estimate of the source…
Mapping of magnetic field lines is important for studies of the solar wind and the sources and propagation of energetic particles between the Sun and observers. A recently developed mapping approach is generalised to use a more advanced…
Current solar wind prediction is based on the Wang & Sheeley empirical relationship between the solar wind speed observed at 1 AU and the rate of magnetic flux tube expansion (FTE) between the photosphere and the inner corona, where FTE is…
Erroneous GNSS positioning, failures in spacecraft operations and power outages due to geomagnetically induced currents are severe threats originating from space weather. Having knowledge of potential impacts on modern society in advance is…
Space weather predictions are necessary to avoid damage caused by intense geomagnetic storms. Such strong storms are usually caused by a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) passing at Earth or by the arrival of strong coronal mass…
We present an empirical model based on the visible area covered by coronal holes close to the central meridian in order to predict the solar wind speed at 1 AU with a lead time up to four days in advance with a 1hr time resolution. Linear…
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) stand as intense eruptions of magnetized plasma from the Sun, playing a pivotal role in driving significant changes of the heliospheric environment. Deducing the properties of CMEs from their progenitors in…
We use magnetograms of 8 solar analogues of ages 30~Myr to 3.6~Gyr obtained from Zeeman Doppler Imaging (ZDI) and taken from the literature, together with two solar magnetograms, to drive magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) wind simulations and…
We present the first real-time predictions of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and resulting geomagnetic impact at Earth for two events using far-upstream observations from Solar Orbiter during March 2024. While our approach…
The solar wind, a stream of charged particles originating from the Sun and transcending interplanetary space, poses risks to technology and astronauts. In this work, we develop a prediction model to forecast the solar wind speed at the…
Recently, we correlated the inferred structure of the solar chromospheric plasma topography with solar wind velocity and composition data measured at 1AU. We now offer a physical justification of these relationships and present initial…
We expand upon our paper (Rice and Yeates, 2021) which introduced `Outflow Fields': alternatives to the widely-used potential field source surface (PFSS) extrapolations of the Sun's coronal magnetic field which take into account the effect…
Forecasting the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is vital for protecting satellites, power systems, and human spaceflight. We present HELIOPANDA: Heliospheric Observer for Predicting CME Arrival via Nonlinear Drag Assimilation, a…