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The density estimation is one of the core problems in statistics. Despite this, existing techniques like maximum likelihood estimation are computationally inefficient due to the intractability of the normalizing constant. For this reason an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-14 Tsimboy Olga , Yermek Kapushev , Evgeny Burnaev , Ivan Oseledets

Bayesian Optimization is a popular approach for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Its key idea is to use a surrogate model to approximate the objective and, importantly, quantify the associated uncertainty that allows a sequential…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-02-05 Haoxian Chen , Henry Lam

This article revisits the problem of Bayesian shape-restricted inference in the light of a recently developed approximate Gaussian process that admits an equivalent formulation of the shape constraints in terms of the basis coefficients. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-14 Pallavi Ray , Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya

Examples with bound information on the regression function and density abound in many real applications. We propose a novel approach for estimating such functions by incorporating the prior knowledge on the bounds. Specially, a Gaussian…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-30 Jize Zhang , Lizhen Lin

Given i.i.d. data from an unknown distribution, we consider the problem of predicting future items. An adaptive way to estimate the probability density is to recursively subdivide the domain to an appropriate data-dependent granularity. A…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Marcus Hutter

[Abridged] We present a novel technique, dubbed FiEstAS, to estimate the underlying density field from a discrete set of sample points in an arbitrary multidimensional space. FiEstAS assigns a volume to each point by means of a binary tree.…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-10 Y. Ascasibar , J. Binney

Given a decision process based on the approximate probability density function returned by a data assimilation algorithm, an interaction level between the decision making level and the data assimilation level is designed to incorporate the…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-19 Gabriel Terejanu , Puneet Singla , Tarunraj Singh , Peter D. Scott

In this paper, we study a class of non-parametric density estimators under Bayesian settings. The estimators are piecewise constant functions on binary partitions. We analyze the concentration rate of the posterior distribution under a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-08-21 Linxi Liu , Wing Hung Wong

A density estimation method in a Bayesian nonparametric framework is presented when recorded data are not coming directly from the distribution of interest, but from a length biased version. From a Bayesian perspective, efforts to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-23 Spyridon J. Hatjispyros , Theodoros Nicoleris , Stephen G. Walker

We apply neural posterior estimation for fast-and-accurate hierarchical Bayesian inference of gravitational wave populations. We use a normalizing flow to estimate directly the population hyper-parameters from a collection of individual…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-04-09 Konstantin Leyde , Stephen R. Green , Alexandre Toubiana , Jonathan Gair

We reconsider a nonparametric density model based on Gaussian processes. By augmenting the model with latent P\'olya--Gamma random variables and a latent marked Poisson process we obtain a new likelihood which is conjugate to the model's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-30 Christian Donner , Manfred Opper

We introduce BayeSQP, a novel algorithm for general black-box optimization that merges the structure of sequential quadratic programming with concepts from Bayesian optimization. BayeSQP employs second-order Gaussian process surrogates for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Paul Brunzema , Sebastian Trimpe

The machine learning community has recently put effort into quantized or low-precision arithmetics to scale large models. This paper proposes performing probabilistic inference in the quantized, discrete parameter space created by these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Aleksanteri Sladek , Martin Trapp , Arno Solin

We investigate Bayesian predictive inference for finite population quantities when there are unequal probabilities of selection. Only limited information about the sample design is available; i.e., only the first-order selection…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-10 Junheng Ma , Joe Sedransk , Balgobin Nandram , Lu Chen

This paper describes a recursive estimation procedure for multivariate binary densities (probability distributions of vectors of Bernoulli random variables) using orthogonal expansions. For $d$ covariates, there are $2^d$ basis coefficients…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-12-03 Maxim Raginsky , Jorge Silva , Svetlana Lazebnik , Rebecca Willett

While stochastic variational inference is relatively well known for scaling inference in Bayesian probabilistic models, related methods also offer ways to circumnavigate the approximation of analytically intractable expectations. The key…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-09-08 David A. Knowles

Bayesian optimisation has proven to be a powerful tool for expensive global black-box optimisation problems. In this paper, we propose new Bayesian optimisation variants of the popular Knowledge Gradient acquisition functions for problems…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-22 Xietao Wang Lin , Juan Ungredda , Max Butler , James Town , Alma Rahat , Hemant Singh , Juergen Branke

Performing exact posterior inference in complex generative models is often difficult or impossible due to an expensive to evaluate or intractable likelihood function. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an inference framework that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-02-16 Jovana Mitrovic , Dino Sejdinovic , Yee Whye Teh

We consider the problem of estimating the missing mass, partition function or evidence and its probability distribution in the case that for each sample point in the discrete sample space its (unnormalized) probability mass is revealed.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-16 Bastiaan J. Braams

We present a Bayesian reconstruction algorithm to generate unbiased samples of the underlying dark matter field from halo catalogues. Our new contribution consists of implementing a non-Poisson likelihood including a deterministic…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2015-06-22 Metin Ata , Francisco-Shu Kitaura , Volker Müller