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Crucial for building trust in deep learning models for critical real-world applications is efficient and theoretically sound uncertainty quantification, a task that continues to be challenging. Useful uncertainty information is expected to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-28 Zhen Lin , Shubhendu Trivedi , Jimeng Sun

Estimating treatment effects, especially individualized treatment effects (ITE), using observational data is challenging due to the complex situations of confounding bias. Existing approaches for estimating treatment effects from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-26 Zheng Feng , Mattia Prosperi , Jiang Bian

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a likelihood-free inference method that has been employed in various applications. However, ABC can be sensitive to outliers if a data discrepancy measure is chosen inappropriately. In this paper,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-08 Masahiro Fujisawa , Takeshi Teshima , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

The application of machine learning in safety-critical systems requires a reliable assessment of uncertainty. However, deep neural networks are known to produce highly overconfident predictions on out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Even if…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-19 Alexander Meinke , Julian Bitterwolf , Matthias Hein

Developing efficient solutions for inference problems in intelligent sensor networks is crucial for the next generation of location, tracking, and mapping services. This paper develops a scalable distributed probabilistic inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Parth Paritosh , Nikolay Atanasov , Sonia Martinez

In this paper, we address the problem of conducting statistical inference in settings involving large-scale data that may be high-dimensional and contaminated by outliers. The high volume and dimensionality of the data require distributed…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-30 Emadaldin Mozafari-Majd , Visa Koivunen

We put forward a simple new randomized missing data (RMD) approach to robust filtering of state-space models, motivated by the idea that the inclusion of only a small fraction of available highly precise measurements can still extract most…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-21 Dobrislav Dobrev , Derek Hansen , Pawel Szerszen

Many modern unsupervised or semi-supervised machine learning algorithms rely on Bayesian probabilistic models. These models are usually intractable and thus require approximate inference. Variational inference (VI) lets us approximate a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-24 Cheng Zhang , Judith Butepage , Hedvig Kjellstrom , Stephan Mandt

Probabilistic models analyze data by relying on a set of assumptions. Data that exhibit deviations from these assumptions can undermine inference and prediction quality. Robust models offer protection against mismatch between a model's…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-20 Yixin Wang , Alp Kucukelbir , David M. Blei

Distributional robustness is a central goal of prediction algorithms due to the prevalent distribution shifts in real-world data. The prediction model aims to minimize the worst-case risk among a class of distributions, a.k.a., an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Marin Šola , Peter Bühlmann , Xinwei Shen

The willingness to trust predictions formulated by automatic algorithms is key in a vast number of domains. However, a vast number of deep architectures are only able to formulate predictions without an associated uncertainty. In this…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-28 Matteo Ferrante , Tommaso Boccato , Nicola Toschi

Hierarchical learning models, such as mixture models and Bayesian networks, are widely employed for unsupervised learning tasks, such as clustering analysis. They consist of observable and hidden variables, which represent the given data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-08 Keisuke Yamazaki

Optimization constrained by high-fidelity computational models has potential for transformative impact. However, such optimization is frequently unattainable in practice due to the complexity and computational intensity of the model. An…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Joseph Hart , Bart van Bloemen Waanders

Particle-based approximate Bayesian inference approaches such as Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD) combine the flexibility and convergence guarantees of sampling methods with the computational benefits of variational inference. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-30 Lauro Langosco di Langosco , Vincent Fortuin , Heiko Strathmann

Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) is a popular framework for estimating a causal effect in settings where treatment is assigned if an observed covariate exceeds a fixed threshold. We consider estimation and inference in the common…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-16 Kevin Tao , Y. Samuel Wang , David Ruppert

In this paper, we propose Total Variation Regularized Tensor-on-scalar Regression(TVTR), a novel method for estimating the association between a tensor outcome (a one dimensional or multidimensional array) and scalar predictors. While the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-11 Ying Liu , Bowei Yan , Kathleen Merikangas , Haochang Shou

We propose Radial Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs): a variational approximate posterior for BNNs which scales well to large models while maintaining a distribution over weight-space with full support. Other scalable Bayesian deep learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-01 Sebastian Farquhar , Michael Osborne , Yarin Gal

In statistical inference, we commonly assume that samples are independent and identically distributed from a probability distribution included in a pre-specified statistical model. However, such an assumption is often violated in practice.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-29 Takafumi Kanamori , Kodai Yokoyama , Takayuki Kawashima

Geoscientists use observed data to estimate properties of the Earth's interior. This often requires non-linear inverse problems to be solved and uncertainties to be estimated. Bayesian inference solves inverse problems under a probabilistic…

Geophysics · Physics 2024-01-01 Xuebin Zhao , Andrew Curtis

This paper develops robust inference methods for predictive regressions that address key challenges posed by endogenously persistent or heavy-tailed regressors, as well as persistent volatility in errors. Building on the Cauchy estimation…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-21 Rustam Ibragimov , Jihyun Kim , Anton Skrobotov