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Earth's climate can be understood as a dynamical system that changes due to external forcing and internal couplings. Essential climate variables, such as surface air temperature, describe this dynamics. Our current interglacial, the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-01-24 Beatrice Ellerhoff , Kira Rehfeld

In complex systems, events occur at irregular intervals that inherently encode the underlying dynamics of the system. Analyzing the temporal clustering of these events reveals critical insights into the non-random patterns and the temporal…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2026-03-20 Ambedkar Sanket Sukdeo , K. Shri Vignesh , Sachin S. Gunthe , T Narayan Rao , Amit Kumar Patra , R. I. Sujith

Collecting time series data spatially distributed in many locations is often important for analyzing climate change and its impacts on ecosystems. However, comprehensive spatial data collection is not always feasible, requiring us to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Shihori Koyama , Daisuke Inoue , Hiroaki Yoshida , Kazuyuki Aihara , Gouhei Tanaka

Understanding the complex structure of multivariate extremes is a major challenge in various fields from portfolio monitoring and environmental risk management to insurance. In the framework of multivariate Extreme Value Theory, a common…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-09 Hamid Jalalzai , Rémi Leluc

Accurate and computationally-viable representations of clouds and turbulence are a long-standing challenge for climate model development. Traditional parameterizations that crudely but efficiently approximate these processes are a leading…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-01-05 Jerry Lin , Mohamed Aziz Bhouri , Tom Beucler , Sungduk Yu , Michael Pritchard

We introduce a nonstationary spatio-temporal statistical model for gridded data on the sphere. The model specifies a computationally convenient covariance structure that depends on heterogeneous geography. Widely used statistical models on…

Applications · Statistics 2016-02-25 Stefano Castruccio , Joseph Guinness

Offshore slender marine structures experience complex and combined load conditions from waves, current and vessel motions that may result in both wave frequency and vortex shedding response patterns. Field measurements often consist of…

To study trends in extreme precipitation across US over the years 1951-2017, we consider 10 climate indexes that represent extreme precipitation, such as annual maximum of daily precipitation, annual maximum of consecutive 5-day average…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-01 Arnab Hazra , Brian J. Reich , Ana-Maria Staicu

Both clustering and outlier detection play an important role for meteorological measurements. We present the AWT algorithm, a clustering algorithm for time series data that also performs implicit outlier detection during the clustering. AWT…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-14 Christina Pacher , Irene Schicker , Rosmarie deWit , Katerina Hlavackova-Schindler , Claudia Plant

The process of collecting and organizing sets of observations represents a common theme throughout the history of science. However, despite the ubiquity of scientists measuring, recording, and analyzing the dynamics of different processes,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-05-23 Ben D. Fulcher , Max A. Little , Nick S. Jones

A novel methodology is proposed for clustering multivariate time series data using energy distance defined in Sz\'ekely and Rizzo (2013). Specifically, a dissimilarity matrix is formed using the energy distance statistic to measure…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-13 Richard A. Davis , Leon Fernandes , Konstantinos Fokianos

We introduce a novel ensemble approach for feature selection based on hierarchical stacking for non-stationarity and/or a limited number of samples with a large number of features. Our approach exploits the co-dependency between features…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-08 Aysin Tumay , Mustafa E. Aydin , Ali T. Koc , Suleyman S. Kozat

We present a framework for modeling multi-scale processes, and study its performance in the context of streamflow forecasting in hydrology. Specifically, we propose a novel hierarchical recurrent neural architecture that factorizes the…

Through Ecological Momentary Assessment (EMA) studies, a number of time-series data is collected across multiple individuals, continuously monitoring various items of emotional behavior. Such complex data is commonly analyzed in an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-12 Mandani Ntekouli , Gerasimos Spanakis , Lourens Waldorp , Anne Roefs

Using optimal detection techniques with climate model simulations, most of the observed increase of near surface temperatures over the second half of the twentieth century is attributed to anthropogenic influences. However, the partitioning…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2016-08-03 Gareth S. Jones , Peter A. Stott , John F. B. Mitchell

This topic review communicates working experiences regarding interaction of a multiplicity of processes. Our experiences come from climate change modelling, materials science, cell physiology and public health, and macroeconomic modelling.…

General Economics · Economics 2020-02-07 Bernhelm Booss-Bavnbek , Rasmus Kristoffer Pedersen , Ulf Rørbæk Pedersen

As climate change intensifies, the urgency for accurate global-scale disaster predictions grows. This research presents a novel multimodal disaster prediction framework, combining weather statistics, satellite imagery, and textual insights.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-02 Gengyin Liu , Huaiyang Zhong

Recently there has been an increase in the studies on time-series data mining specifically time-series clustering due to the vast existence of time-series in various domains. The large volume of data in the form of time-series makes it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-06 Hossein Kamalzadeh , Abbas Ahmadi , Saeed Mansour

We present a new statistical method to optimally link local weather extremes to large-scale atmospheric circulation structures. The method is illustrated using July-August daily mean temperature at 2m height (T2m) time-series over the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-11-04 Debabrata Panja , Frank M. Selten

Improved understanding of characteristics related to weather forecast accuracy in the United States may help meteorologists develop more accurate predictions and may help Americans better interpret their daily weather forecasts. This…

Applications · Statistics 2023-03-16 Jill Lundell , Brennan Bean , Juergen Symanzik