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We noisily observe solutions of an ordinary differential equation $\dot u = f(u)$ at given times, where $u$ lives in a $d$-dimensional state space. The model function $f$ is unknown and belongs to a H\"older-type smoothness class with…
Let $\mathbf{x}_j = \mathbf{\theta} + \mathbf{\epsilon}_j$, $j=1,\dots,n$ be i.i.d. copies of a Gaussian random vector $\mathbf{x}\sim\mathcal{N}(\mathbf{\theta},\mathbf{\Sigma})$ with unknown mean $\mathbf{\theta} \in \mathbb{R}^d$ and…
Assessing the fairness of a decision making system with respect to a protected class, such as gender or race, is challenging when class membership labels are unavailable. Probabilistic models for predicting the protected class based on…
We consider the nonparametric multivariate isotonic regression problem, where the regression function is assumed to be nondecreasing with respect to each predictor. Our goal is to construct a Bayesian credible interval for the function…
Motivated by value function estimation in reinforcement learning, we study statistical linear inverse problems, i.e., problems where the coefficients of a linear system to be solved are observed in noise. We consider penalized estimators,…
Debiased estimation has long been an area of research in the group testing literature. This has led to the development of several estimators with the goal of bias minimization and, recently, an unbiased estimator based on sequential…
We revisit the mathematical foundations of proper scoring rules (PSRs) and Bregman divergences and present their characteristic properties in a unified theoretical framework. In many situations it is preferable not to generate a PSR…
Over the last few years, debiased estimators have been proposed in order to establish rigorous confidence intervals for high-dimensional problems in machine learning and data science. The core argument is that the error of these estimators…
The interplay between missing data and model uncertainty -- two classic statistical problems -- leads to primary questions that we formally address from an objective Bayesian perspective. For the general regression problem, we discuss the…
We propose an extension of a special form of gradient descent -- in the literature known as linearised Bregman iteration -- to a larger class of non-convex functions. We replace the classical (squared) two norm metric in the gradient…
Error bounds are derived for sampling and estimation using a discretization of an intrinsically defined Langevin diffusion with invariant measure $\text{d}\mu_\phi \propto e^{-\phi} \mathrm{dvol}_g $ on a compact Riemannian manifold. Two…
Despite their impressive performance on a wide variety of tasks, modern language models remain susceptible to distribution shifts, exhibiting brittle behavior when evaluated on data that differs in distribution from their training data. In…
Noise is an unavoidable part of most measurements which can hinder a correct interpretation of the data. Uncertainties propagate in the data analysis and can lead to biased results even in basic descriptive statistics such as the central…
We construct an unbiased estimator for function value evaluated at the solution of a partial differential equation with random coefficients. We show that the variance and expected computational cost of our estimator are finite and our…
Managers, employers, policymakers, and others often seek to understand whether decisions are biased against certain groups. One popular analytic strategy is to estimate disparities after adjusting for observed covariates, typically with a…
We study the problem of unbiased estimation of expectations with respect to (w.r.t.) $\pi$ a given, general probability measure on $(\mathbb{R}^d,\mathcal{B}(\mathbb{R}^d))$ that is absolutely continuous with respect to a standard Gaussian…
In this paper, we study nonconvex constrained stochastic zeroth-order optimization problems, for which we have access to exact information of constraints and noisy function values of the objective. We propose a Bregman linearized augmented…
We present a nonparametric method for estimating the value and several derivatives of an unknown, sufficiently smooth real-valued function of real-valued arguments from a finite sample of points, where both the function arguments and the…
Interatomic potentials are essential to go beyond ab initio size limitations, but simulation results depend sensitively on potential parameters. Forward propagation of parameter variation is key for uncertainty quantification, whilst…
This paper studies the estimation of smooth functionals $f(\theta)$ of a mean parameter $\theta = \mathbb{E}_P[W]$ for a distribution $P$ on a general Banach space. We propose a cross-fitted estimator based on a single sample splitting and…