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A fundamental challenge in probabilistic modeling is to balance expressivity and inference efficiency. Tractable probabilistic models (TPMs) aim to directly address this tradeoff by imposing constraints that guarantee efficient inference of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-28 John Leland , YooJung Choi

Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-09 Fredrik Lindsten , Jouni Helske , Matti Vihola

Adoption of deep neural networks in fields such as economics or finance has been constrained by the lack of interpretability of model outcomes. This paper proposes a generative neural network architecture - the parameter encoder neural…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-11 Johann Pfitzinger

Probabilistic inferences distill knowledge from graphs to aid human make important decisions. Due to the inherent uncertainty in the model and the complexity of the knowledge, it is desirable to help the end-users understand the inference…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2019-08-21 Chao Chen , Yifei Liu , Xi Zhang , Sihong Xie

Designing expressive generative models that support exact and efficient inference is a core question in probabilistic ML. Probabilistic circuits (PCs) offer a framework where this tractability-vs-expressiveness trade-off can be analyzed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-27 Lorenzo Loconte , Stefan Mengel , Antonio Vergari

Undirected graphical models are applied in genomics, protein structure prediction, and neuroscience to identify sparse interactions that underlie discrete data. Although Bayesian methods for inference would be favorable in these contexts,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-15 John Ingraham , Debora Marks

In this paper, we propose CI-VI an efficient and scalable solver for semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI). Our method, first, maps SIVI's evidence lower bound (ELBO) to a form involving a nonlinear functional nesting of expected…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-18 Vincent Moens , Hang Ren , Alexandre Maraval , Rasul Tutunov , Jun Wang , Haitham Ammar

We introduce Graph-Structured Sum-Product Networks (GraphSPNs), a probabilistic approach to structured prediction for problems where dependencies between latent variables are expressed in terms of arbitrary, dynamic graphs. While many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-11-23 Kaiyu Zheng , Andrzej Pronobis , Rajesh P. N. Rao

We present Sequential Neural Variational Inference (SNVI), an approach to perform Bayesian inference in models with intractable likelihoods. SNVI combines likelihood-estimation (or likelihood-ratio-estimation) with variational inference to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-20 Manuel Glöckler , Michael Deistler , Jakob H. Macke

We propose a general and scalable approximate sampling strategy for probabilistic models with discrete variables. Our approach uses gradients of the likelihood function with respect to its discrete inputs to propose updates in a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-08 Will Grathwohl , Kevin Swersky , Milad Hashemi , David Duvenaud , Chris J. Maddison

The machine learning community has recently put effort into quantized or low-precision arithmetics to scale large models. This paper proposes performing probabilistic inference in the quantized, discrete parameter space created by these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Aleksanteri Sladek , Martin Trapp , Arno Solin

Calibration of large-scale differential equation models to observational or experimental data is a widespread challenge throughout applied sciences and engineering. A crucial bottleneck in state-of-the art calibration methods is the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-02-23 Jon Cockayne , Andrew B. Duncan

Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) are expressive probabilistic models that provide exact, tractable inference. They achieve this efficiency by making use of local independence. On the other hand, mixtures of exchangeable variable models (MEVMs)…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-29 Stefan Lüdtke , Christian Bartelt , Heiner Stuckenschmidt

Deep generative models have recently made a remarkable progress in capturing complex probability distributions over graphs. However, they are intractable and thus unable to answer even the most basic probabilistic inference queries without…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-20 Milan Papež , Martin Rektoris , Václav Šmídl , Tomáš Pevný

Despite extensive progress on image generation, common deep generative model architectures are not easily applied to lossless compression. For example, VAEs suffer from a compression cost overhead due to their latent variables. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-17 Anji Liu , Stephan Mandt , Guy Van den Broeck

We propose an analytical solution for approximating the gradient of the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) in variational inference problems where the statistical model is a Bayesian network consisting of observations drawn from a mixture of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-14 Roumen Nikolaev Popov

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) have gained prominence in recent years as a versatile framework for discussing probabilistic models that support tractable queries and are yet expressive enough to model complex probability distributions.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-12 Pedro Zuidberg Dos Martires

Variational inference provides a powerful tool for approximate probabilistic in- ference on complex, structured models. Typical variational inference methods, however, require to use inference networks with computationally tractable proba-…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-01 Qiang Liu , Yihao Feng

Diffusion probabilistic models have achieved mainstream success in many generative modeling tasks, from image generation to inverse problem solving. A distinct feature of these models is that they correspond to deep hierarchical latent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-30 Yibo Yang , Justus C. Will , Stephan Mandt

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-06-15 Honghua Zhang , Brendan Juba , Guy Van den Broeck