Related papers: G-Elo: Generalization of the Elo algorithm by mode…
The Elo rating system is a highly successful ranking algorithm for games of skill where, by construction, one team wins and the other loses. A primary limitation of the original Elo algorithm is its inability to predict information beyond a…
This work is concerned with the rating of players/teams in face-to-face games with three possible outcomes: loss, win, and draw. This is one of the fundamental problems in sport analytics, where the very simple and popular, non-trivial…
This work reconciles two perspectives on the Elo ranking that coexist in the literature: the practitioner's view as a heuristic feedback rule, and the statistician's view as online maximum likelihood estimation via stochastic gradient…
The Elo algorithm, renowned for its simplicity, is widely used for rating in sports tournaments and other applications. However, despite its widespread use, a detailed understanding of the convergence characteristics of the Elo algorithm is…
The Elo rating system is a popular and widely adopted method for measuring the relative skill levels of players or teams in various sports and competitions. It assigns players numerical ratings and dynamically updates them based on game…
This paper introduces a score-driven rating system, a generalization of the classical Elo rating system that employs the score, i.e. the gradient of the log-likelihood, as the updating mechanism for player and team ratings. The proposed…
The Elo rating system is a simple and widely used method for calculating players' skills from paired comparisons data. Many have extended it in various ways. Yet the question of updating players' variances remains to be further explored. In…
This study aims to provide a data-driven approach for empirically tuning and validating rating systems, focusing on the Elo system. Well-known rating frameworks, such as Elo, Glicko, TrueSkill systems, rely on parameters that are usually…
The Elo system for rating chess players, also used in other games and sports, was adopted by the World Chess Federation over four decades ago. Although not without controversy, it is accepted as generally reliable and provides a method for…
The Elo rating system is widely adopted to evaluate the skills of (chess) game and sports players. Recently it has been also integrated into machine learning algorithms in evaluating the performance of computerised AI agents. However, an…
The success of a football team depends on various individual skills and performances of the selected players as well as how cohesively they perform. We propose a two-stage process for selecting optimal playing eleven of a football team from…
In this work, a machine learning approach is developed for predicting the outcomes of football matches. The novelty of this research lies in the utilisation of the Kelly Index to first classify matches into categories where each one denotes…
In this manuscript, we concentrate on a specific type of covariates, which we call statistically enhanced, for modeling tennis matches for men at Grand slam tournaments. Our goal is to assess whether these enhanced covariates have the…
Elo rating, widely used for skill assessment across diverse domains ranging from competitive games to large language models, is often understood as an incremental update algorithm for estimating a stationary Bradley-Terry (BT) model.…
Converting betting odds into accurate outcome probabilities is a fundamental challenge in order to use betting odds as a benchmark for sports forecasting and market efficiency analysis. In this study, we propose two methods to overcome the…
One of the main goals of online competitive games is increasing player engagement by ensuring fair matches. These games use rating systems for creating balanced match-ups. Rating systems leverage statistical estimation to rate players'…
This article discusses in detail the rating system that won the kaggle competition "Chess Ratings: Elo vs the rest of the world". The competition provided a historical dataset of outcomes for chess games, and aimed to discover whether novel…
Elo rating systems measure the approximate skill of each competitor in a game or sport. A competitor's rating increases when they win and decreases when they lose. Increasing one's rating can be difficult work; one must hone their skills…
The Elo rating system, which was originally proposed by Arpad Elo for chess, has become one of the most important rating systems in sports, economics and gaming nowadays. Its original formulation is based on two-player zero-sum games, but…
One of the most popular club football tournaments, the UEFA Champions League, will see a fundamental reform from the 2024/25 season: the traditional group stage will be replaced by one league where each of the 36 teams plays eight matches.…