Related papers: Efficient and flexible methods for time since infe…
We consider an age-structured epidemic model with two basic public health interventions: (i) identifying and isolating symptomatic cases, and (ii) tracing and quarantine of the contacts of identified infectives. The dynamics of the infected…
We analyse the infection-age-dependent SIR model from a numerical point of view. First, we present an algorithm for calculating the solution the infection-age-structured SIR model without demography of the background host. Second, we…
The most important features to assess the severity of an epidemic are its size and its timescale. We discuss these features in a systematic way in the context of SIR and SIR-type models. We investigate in detail how the size and timescale…
We study the impact of model parameter uncertainty on optimally mitigating the spread of epidemics. We capture the epidemic spreading process using a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemic model and consider testing for isolation as…
We propose a framework for Bayesian non-parametric estimation of the rate at which new infections occur assuming that the epidemic is partially observed. The developed methodology relies on modelling the rate at which new infections occur…
We consider the edge-based compartmental models for epidemic spread developed in Part I. We show conditions under which simpler models may be substituted for more detailed models, and in so doing we define a hierarchy of epidemic models. In…
We develop a multiple compartment Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the spread of several infectious diseases through different geographic areas. Additionally, we propose a data-quality sensitive optimization framework…
The study of infectious disease propagation is essential for understanding and controlling epidemics. One of the most useful tools for gaining insights into the spread of infectious diseases is mathematical modelling. In terms of…
Deterministic compartmental models have been used extensively in modeling epidemic propagation. These models are required to fit available data and numerical procedures are often implemented to this end. But not every model architecture is…
The paradigm for compartment models in epidemiology assumes exponentially distributed incubation and removal times, which is not realistic in actual populations. Commonly used variations with multiple exponentially distributed variables are…
Many disease models focus on characterizing the underlying transmission mechanism but make simple, possibly naive assumptions about how infections are reported. In this note, we use a simple deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR)…
Stochastic epidemic models can estimate infection and removal rates, and derived quantities such as the basic reproductive number ($R_0$), when both infection and removal times are observed. In practice, however, removal times are often…
Dynamic properties of spreading infection through a heterogeneous population are studied numerically and analytically using a dynamic variant of Watts and Strogatz Small World Network-based stochastic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed…
The epidemiology has recently witnessed great advances based on computational models. Its scope and impact are getting wider thanks to the new data sources feeding analytical frameworks and models. Besides traditional variables considered…
An ultrametric model of epidemic spread of infections based on the classical SIR model is proposed. Ultrametrics on a set of individuals based on theire hierarchical clustering relativly to the average time of infectious contact is…
We present a local spread model of disease transmission on a regular network and compare different control options ranging from treating the whole population to local control in a well-defined neighborhood of an infectious individual.…
Testing is a crucial control mechanism in the beginning phase of an epidemic when the vaccines are not yet available. It enables the public health authority to detect and isolate the infected cases from the population, thereby limiting the…
We present a novel approach to the study of epidemics on networks as thermodynamic phenomena, considering the thermodynamic efficiency of contagions, considered as distributed computational processes. Modelling SIS dynamics on a contact…
We present a detailed set-based analysis of the well-known SIR and SEIR epidemic models subjected to hard caps on the proportion of infective individuals, and bounds on the allowable intervention strategies, such as social distancing,…
Research in epidemiology often focusses on designing interventions that result in the number of infected individuals asymptotically approaching zero, without considering that this number may peak at high values during transients. Recent…