Related papers: A Bayesian Hidden Semi-Markov Model with Covariate…

Environmental time series data observed at high frequencies can be studied with approaches such as hidden Markov and semi-Markov models (HMM and HSMM). HSMMs extend the HMM by explicitly modeling the time spent in each state. In a…

We propose a Bayesian hidden Markov model for analyzing time series and sequential data where a special structure of the transition probability matrix is embedded to model explicit-duration semi-Markovian dynamics. Our formulation allows…

Sequential data modeling and analysis have become indispensable tools for analyzing sequential data, such as time-series data, because larger amounts of sensed event data have become available. These methods capture the sequential structure…

The well-established methodology for the estimation of hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) as hidden Markov models (HMMs) with extended state spaces is further developed to incorporate covariate influences across all aspects of the state…

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…

We search for digital biomarkers from Parkinson's Disease by observing approximate repetitive patterns matching hypothesized step and stride periodic cycles. These observations were modeled as a cycle of hidden states with randomness…

Missing data is among the most prominent challenges in the analysis of physical activity (PA) data collected from wearable devices, with the threat of nonignorabile missingness arising when patterns of device wear relate to underlying…

We define a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) in which each hidden state has time-dependent $\textit{activity levels}$ that drive transitions and emissions, and show how to estimate its parameters. Our construction is motivated by the problem of…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and their extensions have proven to be powerful tools for classification of observations that stem from systems with temporal dependence as they take into account that observations close in time are likely…

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) comprise a powerful generative approach for modeling sequential data and time-series in general. However, the commonly employed assumption of the dependence of the current time frame to a single or multiple…

Hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs) are latent variable models which allow latent state persistence and can be viewed as a generalization of the popular hidden Markov models (HMMs). In this paper, we introduce a novel spectral algorithm to…

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the traditional HMM. However, in many settings the HDP-HMM's strict Markovian constraints are…

Over the last decade, hidden Markov models (HMMs) have become increasingly popular in statistical ecology, where they constitute natural tools for studying animal behavior based on complex sensor data. Corresponding analyses sometimes…

We propose a sparse vector autoregressive (VAR) hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) for modeling temporal and contemporaneous (e.g. spatial) dependencies in multivariate nonstationary time series. The HSMM's generic state distribution is…

Nature, as far as we know, evolves continuously through space and time. Yet the ubiquitous hidden Markov model (HMM)--originally developed for discrete time and space analysis in natural language processing--remains a central tool in…

Background: Biomedical data are usually collections of longitudinal data assessed at certain points in time. Clinical observations assess the presences and severity of symptoms, which are the basis for description and modeling of disease…

Wearable devices including accelerometers are increasingly being used to collect high-frequency human activity data in situ. There is tremendous potential to use such data to inform medical decision making and public health policies.…

Analysis of sequential event data has been recognized as one of the essential tools in data modeling and analysis field. In this paper, after the examination of its technical requirements and issues to model complex but practical situation,…

In this paper, we explore the class of the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM), a flexible extension of the popular Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that allows the underlying stochastic process to be a semi-Markov chain. HSMMs are typically used less…

We investigate the potential occurrence of change points - commonly referred to as "momentum shifts" - in the dynamics of football matches. For that purpose, we model minute-by-minute in-game statistics of Bundesliga matches using hidden…