Related papers: When to Relax Social Distancing Measures? An ARIMA…
The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions…
There are many sources of data giving information about the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the population, but all have major drawbacks, including biases and delayed reporting. For example, the number of confirmed cases largely…
Recent outbreak of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 has affected all of our lives in one way or the other. While medical researchers are working hard to find a cure and doctors/nurses to attend the affected individuals, measures such as…
The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its…
While social living is considered to be an indispensable part of human life in today's ever-connected world, social distancing has recently received much public attention on its importance since the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. In…
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global public health crisis that has been declared a pandemic by World Health Organization. Forecasting country-wise COVID-19 cases is necessary to help policymakers and healthcare providers prepare…
The infection dynamics of a population under stationary isolation conditions is modeled. It is underlined that the stationary character of the isolation measures can be expected to imply that an effective SIR model with constant parameters…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
This work constructs, analyzes, and simulates a new compartmental SEIR-type model for the dynamics and potential control of the current COVID-19 pandemic. The novelty in this work is two-fold. First, the population is divided according to…
Social distancing is widely acknowledged as an effective public health policy combating the novel coronavirus. But extreme social distancing has costs and it is not clear how much social distancing is needed to achieve public health…
This technical report addresses a pressing issue in the trajectory of the coronavirus outbreak; namely, the rate at which effective immunity is lost following the first wave of the pandemic. This is a crucial epidemiological parameter that…
The rapid spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) confronts policy makers with the problem of measuring the effectiveness of containment strategies, balancing public health considerations with the economic costs of social distancing measures.…
This work is a trial in which we propose SIR model and machine learning tools to analyze the coronavirus pandemic in the real world. Based on the public data from \cite{datahub}, we estimate main key pandemic parameters and make predictions…
The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all countries of the world producing a substantial number of fatalities accompanied by a major disruption in their social, financial, and educational organization. The strict disciplinary measures…
This paper is an exploratory study of two epidemiological questions on a worldwide basis. How fast is the disease spreading? Are the restrictions (especially mobility restrictions) for people bring the expected effect? To answer the first…
With the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic spreading across the world, protective measures for containing the virus are essential, especially as long as no vaccine or effective treatment is available. One important measure is…
We introduce a new probabilistic model to estimate the real spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus along regions or countries. Our model simulates the behavior of each individual in a population according to a probabilistic model through an…
We present two epidemiological models, which extend the classical SEIR model by accounting for the effect of indiscriminate quarantining, isolation of infected individuals based on testing and the presence of asymptomatic individuals. Given…
The spread of COVID-19 makes it essential to investigate its prevalence. In such investigation research, as far as we know, the widely-used sampling methods didn't use the information sufficiently about the numbers of the previously…
As of December 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has infected over 75 million people, making it the deadliest pandemic in modern history. This study develops a novel compartmental epidemiological model specific to the SARS-CoV-2 virus and…