Related papers: Dynamical Landscape and Multistability of a Climat…

Modern weather and climate models share a common heritage, and often even components, however they are used in different ways to answer fundamentally different questions. As such, attempts to emulate them using machine learning should…

It is understood that congestion in traffic can be interpreted in terms of the instability of the equation of dynamic motion. The evolution of a traffic system from an unstable or metastable state to a globally stable state bears a strong…

We investigate a coupled atmosphere-ocean model including the mechanical and thermodynamical interaction between the two fluids for the mid-latitudes. The formulation combines a multilayer quasi-geostrophic dynamical framework with…

A "toy" model, simple and elementary enough for an undergraduate class, of the temperature dependence of the greenhouse (mid-IR) absorption by atmospheric water vapor implies a bistable climate system. The stable states are glaciation and…

State-space systems encompass a broad class of algorithms used for modeling and forecasting time series. For such systems to be effective, two objectives must be met: (i) accurate point forecasts of the time series must be produced, and…

Among the most relevant processes in the Earth system for human habitability are quasi-periodic, ocean-driven multi-year events whose dynamics are currently incompletely characterized by physical models, and hence poorly predictable. This…

Rare transitions between long-lived stable states are often analyzed in terms of free energy landscapes computed as functions of a few collective variables. Here, using transitions between geometric phases as example, we demonstrate that…

Many parts of the Earth system are thought to have multiple stable equilibrium states, with the potential for rapid and sometimes catastrophic shifts between them. The most common frameworks for analyzing stability changes, however, require…

In our modeling of the long-term carbon cycle we find potential multiple steady-states in Phanerozoic climates. We include the effects of biotic enhancement of weathering on land, organic carbon burial, oxidation of reduced organic carbon…

We propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system, relying on the nonlinear mutual information of time series analysis and betweenness centrality of complex network…

Multifield models with a curved field space have already been shown to be able to provide viable quintessence models for steep potentials that satisfy swampland bounds. The simplest dynamical systems of this type are obtained by coupling…

Accurate and computationally-viable representations of clouds and turbulence are a long-standing challenge for climate model development. Traditional parameterizations that crudely but efficiently approximate these processes are a leading…

Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…

Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge on the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and…

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial ocean current system, could transition to a weak state. Despite severe associated climate impacts, assessing the AMOC's response under global warming and its proximity to…

The Ghil-Sellers energy balance model of Earth's climate, features -- for a considerable range of the solar intensity -- two stable climate states (a warm and a cold snowball Earth), where the bistability results from the celebrated…

Dynamical models underpin our ability to understand and predict the behavior of natural systems. Whether dynamical models are developed from first-principles derivations or from observational data, they are predicated on our choice of state…

When a system has more than one stable state, how can the stability of these states be compared? This deceptively simple question has important consequences for ecosystems, because systems with alternative stable states can undergo dramatic…

In many complex systems, states and interaction structure coevolve towards a dynamic equilibrium. For the adaptive contact process, we obtain approximate expressions for the degree distributions that characterize the interaction network in…

The first step in exploring the properties of dynamical systems like the Earth climate is to identify the different phase space regions where the trajectories asymptotically evolve, called `attractors'. In a given system, multiple…