Related papers: Analysis of Markov Jump Processes under Terminal C…
We consider continuous time Markovian processes where populations of individual agents interact stochastically according to kinetic rules. Despite the increasing prominence of such models in fields ranging from biology to smart cities,…
To understand the long-run behavior of Markov population models, the computation of the stationary distribution is often a crucial part. We propose a truncation-based approximation that employs a state-space lumping scheme, aggregating…
Stochastic processes on complex networks, where each node is in one of several compartments, and neighboring nodes interact with each other, can be used to describe a variety of real-world spreading phenomena. However, computational…
Advances in sampling schemes for Markov jump processes have recently enabled multiple inferential tasks. However, in statistical and machine learning applications, we often require that these continuous-time models find support on…
We develop a new algorithm for the estimation of rare event probabilities associated with the steady-state of a Markov stochastic process with continuous state space $\mathbb R^d$ and discrete time steps (i.e. a discrete-time $\mathbb…
This article analyzes and compares two general techniques of rare event simulation for generating paths of Markov processes over fixed time horizons: exponential tilting and stochastic bridge. These two methods allow to accurately compute…
We propose a novel, tractable latent state inference scheme for Markov jump processes, for which exact inference is often intractable. Our approach is based on an entropic matching framework that can be embedded into the well-known…
Model reduction of Markov processes is a basic problem in modeling state-transition systems. Motivated by the state aggregation approach rooted in control theory, we study the statistical state compression of a discrete-state Markov chain…
We consider a linear stochastic fluid network under Markov modulation, with a focus on the probability that the joint storage level attains a value in a rare set at a given point in time. The main objective is to develop efficient…
We consider the task of generating draws from a Markov jump process (MJP) between two time-points at which the process is known. Resulting draws are typically termed bridges and the generation of such bridges plays a key role in…
We study the approximation of a Markov chain on a reduced state space, for both discrete- and continuous-time Markov chains. In this context, we extend the existing theory of formal error bounds for the approximated transient distributions.…
This paper considers stochastic-constrained stochastic optimization where the stochastic constraint is to satisfy that the expectation of a random function is below a certain threshold. In particular, we study the setting where data samples…
The efficient calculation of rare-event kinetics in complex dynamical systems, such as the rate and pathways of ligand dissociation from a protein, is a generally unsolved problem. Markov state models can systematically integrate ensembles…
We consider a broad class of continuous-time two-type population size-dependent Markov Branching Processes. The offspring distribution can depend on the current (alive) and total (dead and alive) populations. Using stochastic approximation…
Lumping a Markov process introduces a coarser level of description that is useful in many contexts and applications. The dynamics on the coarse grained states is often approximated by its Markovian component. In this letter we derive…
In the analysis of Markov chains and processes, it is sometimes convenient to replace an unbounded state space with a "truncated" bounded state space. When such a replacement is made, one often wants to know whether the equilibrium behavior…
We formally introduce and study locally-balanced Markov jump processes (LBMJPs) defined on a general state space. These continuous-time stochastic processes with a user-specified limiting distribution are designed for sampling in settings…
Inspired by a duration-dependent life insurance model, we consider continuous-time semi-Markov jump processes, initially assumed to have a finite state-space. We develop approximations using jump processes that are time-homogeneous Markov,…
The study of time-inhomogeneous Markov jump processes is a traditional topic within probability theory that has recently attracted substantial attention in various applications. However, their flexibility also incurs a substantial…
We study a Markov decision problem in which the state space is the set of finite marked point configurations in the plane, the actions represent thinnings, the reward is proportional to the mark sum which is discounted over time, and the…