Related papers: Quantification of Ebola virus replication kinetics…
The coexistence of different viral strains (quasispecies) within the same host are nowadays observed for a growing number of viruses, most notably HIV, Marburg and Ebola, but the conditions for the formation and survival of new strains have…
A key problem in modelling the evolution dynamics of infectious diseases is the mathematical representation of the mechanism of transmission of the contagion. Models with a finite number of subpopulations can be described via systems of…
A major Ebola outbreak occurs in West Africa since March 2014, being the deadliest epidemic in history. As an infectious disease epidemiology, Ebola is the most lethal and is moving faster than in previous outbreaks. On 8 August 2014, the…
The traditional methods of the biology, based on illustrative descriptions and linear logic explanations, are discussed. This work aims to improve this approach by introducing alternative tools to describe and represent complex biological…
When an infectious disease outbreak is of a relatively small size, describing the ancestry of a sample of infected individuals is difficult because most ancestral models assume large population sizes. Given a set of infected individuals, we…
Epidemic spreading of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and has often considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and demands for a…
We analyze four models of epidemic spreading using a stochastic approach in which the primary stochastic variables are the numbers of individuals in each class. The stochastic approach is described by a master equation and the transition…
A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…
We consider the problem of model choice for stochastic epidemic models given partial observation of a disease outbreak through time. Our main focus is on the use of Bayes factors. Although Bayes factors have appeared in the epidemic…
The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of…
The dynamics of infection spread in populations has received popular attention since the outbreak of Covid-19 and many statistical models have been developed. One of the interesting areas of research is short-time dynamics in confined,…
During primary HIV infection, the kinetics of plasma virus concentrations and CD4+ cell counts is very complex. Parametric and nonparametric models have been suggested for fitting repeated measurements of these markers. Alternatively,…
Within a short period of time, COVID-19 grew into a world-wide pandemic. Transmission by pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic viral carriers rendered intervention and containment of the disease extremely challenging. Based on reported infection…
We propose a realistic model for the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic subject to the lockdown and quarantine measures, which takes into account the time-delay for recovery or death processes. The dynamic equations for the entire process…
The dose-response model has been widely used for quantifying the risk of infection of airborne diseases like COVID-19. The model has been used in the room-average analysis of infection risk and analysis using passive scalars as a proxy for…
Breaking a complex bio-social phenomenon (epidemic) into its components, considering the processes that determine its dynamics, formalizing the accepted hypotheses in mathematical equations, selecting appropriate experimental and…
West Africa is currently experiencing a severe outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD). As part of the international effort to address this outbreak, the United States has committed to building specialized Ebola treatment facilities with 1700…
Cure rate models are mostly used to study data arising from cancer clinical trials. Its use in the context of infectious diseases has not been explored well. In 2008, Tournoud and Ecochard first proposed a mechanistic formulation of cure…
Developing the ability to comprehensively study infections in small populations enables us to improve epidemic models and better advise individuals about potential risks to their health. We currently have a limited understanding of how…
For many infectious disease outbreaks, the at-risk population changes their behavior in response to the outbreak severity, causing the transmission dynamics to change in real-time. Behavioral change is often ignored in epidemic modeling…