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We analyze the computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), which approximates a likelihood function by drawing pseudo-samples from the associated model. For the rejection sampling version of ABC, it is known that…

Computation · Statistics 2016-02-18 Luke Bornn , Natesh Pillai , Aaron Smith , Dawn Woodard

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and other likelihood-free inference methods have gained popularity in the last decade, as they allow rigorous statistical inference for complex models without analytically tractable likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2019-06-21 Jukka Sirén , Samuel Kaski

This paper is concerned with particle filtering for $\alpha$-stable stochastic volatility models. The $\alpha$-stable distribution provides a flexible framework for modeling asymmetry and heavy tails, which is useful when modeling financial…

Computation · Statistics 2014-05-20 Emilian Vankov , Katherine B. Ensor

Bayes linear analysis and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are techniques commonly used in the Bayesian analysis of complex models. In this article we connect these ideas by demonstrating that regression-adjustment ABC algorithms…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-12-10 D. J. Nott , Y. Fan , L. Marshall , S. A. Sisson

Likelihood-free inference methods based on neural conditional density estimation were shown to drastically reduce the simulation burden in comparison to classical methods such as ABC. When applied in the context of any latent variable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-06 Sanmitra Ghosh , Paul J. Birrell , Daniela De Angelis

Probabilistic numerics casts numerical tasks, such the numerical solution of differential equations, as inference problems to be solved. One approach is to model the unknown quantity of interest as a random variable, and to constrain this…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-10-29 Onur Teymur , Christopher N. Foley , Philip G. Breen , Toni Karvonen , Chris. J. Oates

Many Bayesian inference problems require exploring the posterior distribution of high-dimensional parameters that represent the discretization of an underlying function. This work introduces a family of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

Computation · Statistics 2016-05-03 Tiangang Cui , Kody J. H. Law , Youssef M. Marzouk

In conducting non-linear dimensionality reduction and feature learning, it is common to suppose that the data lie near a lower-dimensional manifold. A class of model-based approaches for such problems includes latent variables in an unknown…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-08-20 Deborshee Sen , Theodore Papamarkou , David Dunson

In many applications involving spatial point patterns, we find evidence of inhibition or repulsion. The most commonly used class of models for such settings are the Gibbs point processes. A recent alternative, at least to the statistical…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-29 Shinichiro Shirota , Alan. E. Gelfand

Increasingly complex generative models are being used across disciplines as they allow for realistic characterization of data, but a common difficulty with them is the prohibitively large computational cost to evaluate the likelihood…

Computation · Statistics 2017-03-06 Michael U. Gutmann , Ritabrata Dutta , Samuel Kaski , Jukka Corander

Bayesian Likelihood-Free Inference (LFI) approaches allow to obtain posterior distributions for stochastic models with intractable likelihood, by relying on model simulations. In Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), a popular LFI method,…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-08 Lorenzo Pacchiardi , Ritabrata Dutta

In this paper we develop a likelihood-free approach for population calibration, which involves finding distributions of model parameters when fed through the model produces a set of outputs that matches available population data. Unlike…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-07 Christopher Drovandi , Brodie Lawson , Adrianne L Jenner , Alexander P Browning

Methods of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) are increasingly used for analysis of complex models. A major challenge for ABC is over-coming the often inherent problem of high rejection rates in the accept/reject methods based on…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-27 Fernando V. Bonassi , Mike West

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods rely on asymptotic arguments, implying that parameter inference can be systematically biased even when sufficient statistics are available. We propose to construct the ABC accept/reject step…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-01-24 Oliver Ratmann , Anton Camacho , Adam Meijer , Gé Donker

Many cosmological models have only a finite number of parameters of interest, but a very expensive data-generating process and an intractable likelihood function. We address the problem of performing likelihood-free Bayesian inference from…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2018-09-14 Florent Leclercq

We develop a computationally efficient framework for quasi-Bayesian inference based on linear moment conditions. The approach employs a delayed acceptance Markov chain Monte Carlo (DA-MCMC) algorithm that uses a surrogate target kernel and…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-18 Masahiro Tanaka

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods are used to approximate posterior distributions using simulation rather than likelihood calculations. We introduce Gaussian process (GP) accelerated ABC, which we show can significantly reduce…

Computation · Statistics 2014-02-25 Richard D Wilkinson

A fundamental problem in network analysis is clustering the nodes into groups which share a similar connectivity pattern. Existing algorithms for community detection assume the knowledge of the number of clusters or estimate it a priori…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-30 Junxian Geng , Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

Bayesian calibration of black-box computer models offers an established framework to obtain a posterior distribution over model parameters. Traditional Bayesian calibration involves the emulation of the computer model and an additive model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-30 Sébastien Marmin , Maurizio Filippone

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential part of the Bayesian toolbox for addressing problems in which the likelihood is prohibitively expensive or entirely unknown, making it intractable. ABC defines a…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-14 Hien D. Nguyen , Julyan Arbel , Hongliang Lü , Florence Forbes