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Robustness of decision rules to shifts in the data-generating process is crucial to the successful deployment of decision-making systems. Such shifts can be viewed as interventions on a causal graph, which capture (possibly hypothetical)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-05-20 Benjie Wang , Clare Lyle , Marta Kwiatkowska

This paper develops a Bayesian framework for robust causal inference from longitudinal observational data. Many contemporary methods rely on structural assumptions, such as factor models, to adjust for unobserved confounding, but they can…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-20 Angelos Alexopoulos , Nikolaos Demiris

Randomized experiments have become a cornerstone of evidence-based decision-making in contexts ranging from online platforms to public health. However, in experimental settings with network interference, a unit's treatment can influence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-22 Sadegh Shirani , Yuwei Luo , William Overman , Ruoxuan Xiong , Mohsen Bayati

We propose a counterfactual approach to train ``causality-aware" predictive models that are able to leverage causal information in static anticausal machine learning tasks (i.e., prediction tasks where the outcome influences the features).…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-01 Elias Chaibub Neto

Spatially Coherent Random Forest (SCRF) extends Random Forest to create spatially coherent labeling. Each split function in SCRF is evaluated based on a traditional information gain measure that is regularized by a spatial coherency term.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2015-12-08 Tal Remez , Shai Avidan

Comparing two samples of data, we observe a change in the distribution of an outcome variable. In the presence of multiple explanatory variables, how much of the change can be explained by each possible cause? We develop a new estimation…

Continual learning based on data stream mining deals with ubiquitous sources of Big Data arriving at high-velocity and in real-time. Adaptive Random Forest ({\em ARF}) is a popular ensemble method used for continual learning due to its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-16 Diego Marrón , Eduard Ayguadé , José Ramon Herrero , Albert Bifet

Despite attractive theoretical guarantees and practical successes, Predictive Interval (PI) given by Conformal Prediction (CP) may not reflect the uncertainty of a given model. This limitation arises from CP methods using a constant…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-01 Salim I. Amoukou , Nicolas J. B Brunel

Since the advent of autonomous driving technology, it has experienced remarkable progress over the last decade. However, most existing research still struggles to address the challenges posed by environments where multiple vehicles have to…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2025-08-01 Jing Wang , Yan Jin , Fei Ding , Chongfeng Wei

Estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects (HTE) is of prime importance in many disciplines, ranging from personalized medicine to economics among many others. Random forests have been shown to be a flexible and powerful approach to HTE…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Susanne Dandl , Torsten Hothorn , Heidi Seibold , Erik Sverdrup , Stefan Wager , Achim Zeileis

Real-world classification problems must contend with domain shift, the (potential) mismatch between the domain where a model is deployed and the domain(s) where the training data was gathered. Methods to handle such problems must specify…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-05 Yibo Jiang , Victor Veitch

This paper introduces a new framework for recovering causal graphs from observational data, leveraging the observation that the distribution of an effect, conditioned on its causes, remains invariant to changes in the prior distribution of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Nang Hung Nguyen , Phi Le Nguyen , Thao Nguyen Truong , Trong Nghia Hoang , Masashi Sugiyama

Sampling-based algorithms, such as Rapidly Exploring Random Trees (RRT) and its variants, have been used extensively for motion planning. Control barrier functions (CBFs) have been recently proposed to synthesize controllers for…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-06-03 Ahmad Ahmad , Calin Belta , Roberto Tron

Causal influence measures for machine learnt classifiers shed light on the reasons behind classification, and aid in identifying influential input features and revealing their biases. However, such analyses involve evaluating the classifier…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-04-10 Shayak Sen , Piotr Mardziel , Anupam Datta , Matthew Fredrikson

Causal discovery, the task of inferring causal structure from data, has the potential to uncover mechanistic insights from biological experiments, especially those involving perturbations. However, causal discovery algorithms over larger…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Menghua Wu , Yujia Bao , Regina Barzilay , Tommi Jaakkola

Federated or multi-site studies have distinct advantages over single-site studies, including increased generalizability, the ability to study underrepresented populations, and the opportunity to study rare exposures and outcomes. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-25 Larry Han , Zhu Shen , Jose Zubizarreta

Counterfactual explanations elucidate algorithmic decisions by pointing to scenarios that would have led to an alternative, desired outcome. Giving insight into the model's behavior, they hint users towards possible actions and give grounds…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-05 Susanne Dandl , Kristin Blesch , Timo Freiesleben , Gunnar König , Jan Kapar , Bernd Bischl , Marvin Wright

Understanding causality should be a core requirement of any attempt to build real impact through AI. Due to the inherent unobservability of counterfactuals, large randomised trials (RCTs) are the standard for causal inference. But large…

Recent interest in the external validity of prediction models (i.e., the problem of different train and test distributions, known as dataset shift) has produced many methods for finding predictive distributions that are invariant to dataset…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-20 Adarsh Subbaswamy , Bryant Chen , Suchi Saria

When drawing causal inferences about the effects of multiple treatments on clustered survival outcomes using observational data, we need to address implications of the multilevel data structure, multiple treatments, censoring and unmeasured…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-18 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Ronald D. Ennis , Joseph W. Hogan