Related papers: Predicting the popularity of scientific publicatio…
In research policy, effective measures that lead to improvements in the generation of knowledge must be based on reliable methods of research assessment, but for many countries and institutions this is not the case. Publication and citation…
Information diffusion prediction is a fundamental task which forecasts how an information item will spread among users. In recent years, deep learning based methods, especially those based on recurrent neural networks (RNNs), have achieved…
We here present a simple and effective model to predict the popularity of web content. Our solution, which is the winner of two of the three tasks of the ECML/PKDD 2014 Predictive Analytics Challenge, aims at predicting user engagement…
Diffusion models, which leverage stochastic processes to capture complex data distributions effectively, have shown their performance as generative models, achieving notable success in image-related tasks through iterative denoising…
We investigate the predictability of successful memes using their early spreading patterns in the underlying social networks. We propose and analyze a comprehensive set of features and develop an accurate model to predict future popularity…
Link prediction algorithms can help to understand the structure and dynamics of scientific collaborations and the evolution of Science. However, available algorithms based on similarity between nodes of collaboration networks are bounded by…
In this work, we propose a regression method to predict the popularity of an online video based on temporal and visual cues. Our method uses Support Vector Regression with Gaussian Radial Basis Functions. We show that modelling popularity…
Predicting popularity, or the total volume of information outbreaks, is an important subproblem for understanding collective behavior in networks. Each of the two main types of recent approaches to the problem, feature-driven and generative…
The exponential growth in scientific publications poses a severe challenge for human researchers. It forces attention to more narrow sub-fields, which makes it challenging to discover new impactful research ideas and collaborations outside…
We propose a model of the evolution of the networks of scientific citations. The model takes an out-degree distribution (distribution of number of citations) and two parameters as input. The parameters capture the two main ingredients of…
The deluge of digital information in our daily life -- from user-generated content, such as microblogs and scientific papers, to online business, such as viral marketing and advertising -- offers unprecedented opportunities to explore and…
It is a matter of debate whether a shrinking proportion of scholarly literature is getting most of the references over time. It is also less well understood how a narrowing literature usage would affect the circulation of ideas in the…
With society entering the Internet era, the volume and speed of data and information have been increasing. Predicting the popularity of information cascades can help with high-value information delivery and public opinion monitoring on the…
Science is a growing system, exhibiting ~4% annual growth in publications and ~1.8% annual growth in the number of references per publication. Combined these trends correspond to a 12-year doubling period in the total supply of references,…
Today, users are reading the news through social platforms. These platforms are built to facilitate crowd engagement, but not necessarily disseminate useful news to inform the masses. Hence, the news that is highly engaged with may not be…
Recently we discovered (cond-mat/0212043) that the majority of scientific citations are copied from the lists of references used in other papers. Here we show that a model, in which a scientist picks three random papers, cites them,and also…
The increasing prominence of temporal networks in online social platforms and dynamic communication systems has made influence maximization a critical research area. Various diffusion models have been proposed to capture the spread of…
In many growing networks, the age of the nodes plays an important role in deciding the attachment probability of the incoming nodes. For example, in a citation network, very old papers are seldom cited while recent papers are usually cited…
Social networking websites allow users to create and share content. Big information cascades of post resharing can form as users of these sites reshare others' posts with their friends and followers. One of the central challenges in…
In our modern society, people are daily confronted with an increasing amount of information of any kind. As a consequence, the attention capacities and processing abilities of individuals often saturate. People, therefore, have to select…