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The estimation of risk measures recently gained a lot of attention, partly because of the backtesting issues of expected shortfall related to elicitability. In this work we shed a new and fundamental light on optimal estimation procedures…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-08-25 Marcin Pitera , Thorsten Schmidt

Motivated by the analysis of a general optimal portfolio selection problem, which encompasses as special cases an optimal consumption and an optimal debt-arrangement problem, we are concerned with the questions of how a personality trait…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-11-14 Francesco Ruscitti , Ram Sewak Dubey , Giorgio Laguzzi

Risk control has become one of the major concern of financial institutions. The need for adequate statistical tools to measure and anticipate the amplitude of the potential moves of financial markets is clearly expressed, in particular for…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2007-05-23 Jean-Philippe Bouchaud , Marc Potters

We extend well-known comparative results under expected utility to models of non-expected utility by providing novel conditions on local utility functions. We illustrate how our results parallel, and are distinct from, existing results for…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-01-16 Collin Raymond , Yangwei Song

We study three axioms in the model of constrained social choice under uncertainty where (i) agents have subjective expected utility preferences over acts and (ii) different states of nature have (possibly) different sets of available…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-08-05 Eric Bahel

This paper discusses an alternative explanation for the empirical findings contradicting the positive relationship between risk (variance) and reward (expected return). We show that these contradicting results might be due to the false…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-19 Mihaly Ormos , Dusan Timotity

In the world of modern financial theory, portfolio construction has traditionally operated under at least one of two central assumptions: the constraints are derived from a utility function and/or the multivariate probability distribution…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-07-19 Donald Geman , Hélyette Geman , Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Accuracy of economic theories and efficiency of economic policy strictly depend on the choice of the economic variables and processes mostly liable for description of economic reality. That states the general problem of assessment of any…

General Economics · Economics 2022-08-17 Victor Olkhov

Diversification is the typical investment strategy of risk-averse agents. However, non-diversified positions that allocate all resources to a single asset, state of the world or revenue stream are common too. We show that whenever finitely…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-10-18 Christopher P. Chambers , Georgios Gerasimou

Risk aversion is a common behavior universal to humans and animals alike. Economists have traditionally defined risk preferences by the curvature of the utility function. Psychologists and behavioral economists also make use of concepts…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-11-18 Arend Hintze , Randal S. Olson , Christoph Adami , Ralph Hertwig

Stochastic dominance is a crucial tool for the analysis of choice under risk. It is typically analyzed as a property of two gambles that are taken in isolation. We study how additional independent sources of risk (e.g. uninsurable labor…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-14 Luciano Pomatto , Philipp Strack , Omer Tamuz

Assuming that agents' preferences satisfy first-order stochastic dominance, we show how the Expected Utility paradigm can rationalize all optimal investment choices: the optimal investment strategy in any behavioral law-invariant…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-02-03 Carole Bernard , Jit Seng Chen , Steven Vanduffel

We show in a simulation when economic agents are subject to evolution (random change and selection based on the success in the estimation of the result of the gamble) they acquire risk aversive behavior. This behavior appears in the form of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-02-07 Ihor Kendiukhov

In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-03-20 Robert Kitt

Empirical evidence shows that wealthy households have substantially higher saving rates and markedly lower marginal propensity to consume (MPC) than other groups. Existing theory cannot account for this pattern unless under restrictive…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-01-21 Qingyin Ma , Xinxi Song , Alexis Akira Toda

People rationalize their past choices, even those that were mistakes in hindsight. We propose a formal theory of this behavior. The theory predicts that sunk costs affect later choices. Its model primitives are identified by choice behavior…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2022-03-21 Erik Eyster , Shengwu Li , Sarah Ridout

We obtain a full characterization of consistency with respect to higher-order stochastic dominance within the rank-dependent utility model. Different from the results in the literature, we do not assume any condition on the utility…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-09-24 Ruodu Wang , Qinyu Wu

We uncover a close link between outside options and risk attitude: when a decision-maker gains access to an outside option, her behaviour becomes less risk-averse, and conversely, any observed decrease of risk-aversion can be explained by…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-09-19 Gregorio Curello , Ludvig Sinander , Mark Whitmeyer

The report suggests the concept of risk, outlining two mathematical structures necessary for risk genesis: the set of outcomes and, in a general case, partial order of preference on it. It is shown that this minimum partial order should…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-04-14 Tatiana Urazaeva

We present a theory of expected utility with state-dependent linear utility functions for monetary returns, that incorporates the possibility of loss-aversion. Our results relate to first order stochastic dominance, mean-preserving spread,…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-11-19 Somdeb Lahiri