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Prediction sets can wrap around any ML model to cover unknown test outcomes with a guaranteed probability. Yet, it remains unclear how to use them optimally for downstream decision-making. Here, we propose a decision-theoretic framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Tao Wang , Edgar Dobriban

Conformal risk control (CRC) provides distribution-free guarantees for controlling the expected loss at a user-specified level. Existing theory typically assumes that the loss decreases monotonically with a tuning parameter that governs the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-21 Tareq Aldirawi , Yun Li , Wenge Guo

The concept of a minimax classifier is well-established in statistical decision theory, but its implementation via neural networks remains challenging, particularly in scenarios with imbalanced training data having a limited number of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-07 Hansung Choi , Daewon Seo

This paper proves, in very general settings, that convex risk minimization is a procedure to select a unique conditional probability model determined by the classification problem. Unlike most previous work, we give results that are general…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-06-16 Matus Telgarsky , Miroslav Dudík , Robert Schapire

In a wide range of statistical learning problems such as ranking, clustering or metric learning among others, the risk is accurately estimated by $U$-statistics of degree $d\geq 1$, i.e. functionals of the training data with low variance…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-25 Stéphan Clémençon , Aurélien Bellet , Igor Colin

Ordinal regression is aimed at predicting an ordinal class label. In this paper, we consider its semi-supervised formulation, in which we have unlabeled data along with ordinal-labeled data to train an ordinal regressor. There are several…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Taira Tsuchiya , Nontawat Charoenphakdee , Issei Sato , Masashi Sugiyama

Advanced classification algorithms are being increasingly used in safety-critical applications like health-care, engineering, etc. In such applications, miss-classifications made by ML algorithms can result in substantial financial or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-06 Disha Ghandwani , Neeraj Sarna , Yuanyuan Li , Yang Lin

Active learning is a type of sequential design for supervised machine learning, in which the learning algorithm sequentially requests the labels of selected instances from a large pool of unlabeled data points. The objective is to produce a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-14 Steve Hanneke , Liu Yang

In this work we investigate to which extent one can recover class probabilities within the empirical risk minimization (ERM) paradigm. The main aim of our paper is to extend existing results and emphasize the tight relations between…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-22 Alexander Mey , Marco Loog

We study conditional risk minimization (CRM), i.e. the problem of learning a hypothesis of minimal risk for prediction at the next step of sequentially arriving dependent data. Despite it being a fundamental problem, successful learning in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-06 Alexander Zimin , Christoph Lampert

We propose a general approach for supervised learning with structured output spaces, such as combinatorial and polyhedral sets, that is based on minimizing estimated conditional risk functions. Given a loss function defined over pairs of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-02-28 Chong Yang Goh , Patrick Jaillet

The integration of reinforcement learning (RL) into large language models (LLMs) has opened new opportunities for recommender systems by eliciting reasoning and improving user preference modeling. However, RL-based LLM recommendation faces…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2026-02-05 Lin Wang , Yang Zhang , Jingfan Chen , Xiaoyan Zhao , Fengbin Zhu , Qing Li , Tat-Seng Chua

This manuscript studies statistical properties of linear classifiers obtained through minimization of an unregularized convex risk over a finite sample. Although the results are explicitly finite-dimensional, inputs may be passed through…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-15 Matus Telgarsky

Stochastic majorization-minimization (SMM) is a class of stochastic optimization algorithms that proceed by sampling new data points and minimizing a recursive average of surrogate functions of an objective function. The surrogates are…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-22 Hanbaek Lyu

We generalize the notion of minimax convergence rate. In contrast to the standard definition, we do not assume that the sample size is fixed in advance. Allowing for varying sample size results in time-robust minimax rates and estimators.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Alisa Kirichenko , Peter Grünwald

We study the consistency of surrogate risks for robust binary classification. It is common to learn robust classifiers by adversarial training, which seeks to minimize the expected $0$-$1$ loss when each example can be maliciously corrupted…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-09 Natalie Frank , Jonathan Niles-Weed

Developing simple, sample-efficient learning algorithms for robust classification is a pressing issue in today's tech-dominated world, and current theoretical techniques requiring exponential sample complexity and complicated improper…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Robi Bhattacharjee , Max Hopkins , Akash Kumar , Hantao Yu , Kamalika Chaudhuri

We address the problem of aggregating an ensemble of predictors with known loss bounds in a semi-supervised binary classification setting, to minimize prediction loss incurred on the unlabeled data. We find the minimax optimal predictions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-08 Akshay Balsubramani , Yoav Freund

We consider learning methods based on the regularization of a convex empirical risk by a squared Hilbertian norm, a setting that includes linear predictors and non-linear predictors through positive-definite kernels. In order to go beyond…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-19 Ulysse Marteau-Ferey , Dmitrii Ostrovskii , Francis Bach , Alessandro Rudi

We develop minimax optimal risk bounds for the general learning task consisting in predicting as well as the best function in a reference set $\mathcal{G}$ up to the smallest possible additive term, called the convergence rate. When the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-09-09 Jean-Yves Audibert