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A reasonable prediction of infectious diseases transmission process under different disease control strategies is an important reference point for policy makers. Here we established a dynamic transmission model via Python and realized…
COVID-19 has spread from China across Europe and the United States and has become a global pandemic. In countries of the Global South, due to often weaker socioeconomic options and health care systems, effective local countermeasures remain…
While several non-pharmacological measures have been implemented for a few months in an effort to slow the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States, the disease remains a danger in a number of counties as restrictions…
Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…
Agent-based simulators (ABS) are a popular epidemiological modelling tool to study the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions in managing an epidemic in a city (or a region). They provide the flexibility to accurately model a…
COVID-19--a viral infectious disease--has quickly emerged as a global pandemic infecting millions of people with a significant number of deaths across the globe. The symptoms of this disease vary widely. Depending on the symptoms an…
Intent of this research is to explore how mathematical models, specifically Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, can be utilized to forecast peak outbreak timeline of COVID-19 epidemic amongst a population of interest starting from the…
Interaction-driven modeling of diseases over real-world contact data has been shown to promote the understanding of the spread of diseases in communities. This temporal modeling follows the path-preserving order and timing of the contacts,…
Agent-based model (ABM) are a kind of computer model that makes it possible to simulate a set of autonomous interacting programs called agents in a shared virtual environment. Among other application field, it has been commonly used to…
A mathematical model for estimating the risk of airborne transmission of a respiratory infection such as COVID-19, is presented. The model employs basic concepts from fluid dynamics and incorporates the known scope of factors involved in…
This paper develops an agent-level simulation model, termed ALPS, for simulating the spread of an infectious disease in a confined community. The mechanism of transmission is agent-to-agent contact, using parameters reported for Corona…
Masks have remained an important mitigation strategy in the fight against COVID-19 due to their ability to prevent the transmission of respiratory droplets between individuals. In this work, we provide a comprehensive quantitative analysis…
Mathematical modeling has been fundamental to achieving near real-time accurate forecasts of the spread of COVID-19. Similarly, the design of non-pharmaceutical interventions has played a key role in the application of policies to contain…
Airborne transmission is now believed to be the primary way that COVID-19 spreads. We study the airborne transmission risk associated with holding in-person classes on university campuses. We utilize a model for airborne transmission risk…
By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by…
Mathematical and simulation models are often used to predict the spread of a disease and estimate the impact of public health interventions, and many such models have been developed and used during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper…
We model further development of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK given the current data and assuming different scenarios of handling the epidemic. In this research, we further extend the stochastic model suggested in \cite{us} and…
Understanding infectious disease transmission in institutional settings requires models that capture how contacts arise from structured routines, roles, and spatial constraints. In aged care facilities, interactions are driven by care…
In December 2019, the first patients in Wuhan, China were diagnosed with a primary atypical pneumonia, which showed to be unknown and contagious. Since then, known as COVID-19 disease, the responsible viral pathogen, SARS-CoV-2, has spread…
This study examined a simulated confined space modelled as a hospital waiting area, where people who could have underlying conditions congregate and mix with potentially infectious individuals. It further investigated the impact of the…