Related papers: On cointegration for modeling and forecasting wind…
Renewable energy sources provide a constantly increasing contribution to the total energy production worldwide. However, the power generation from these sources is highly variable due to their dependence on meteorological conditions.…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in practical studies, e.g., forecasting, modelling policy transmission mechanism, and measuring connection of economic agents. To better capture the dynamics, this paper introduces a new…
The share of wind energy in total installed power capacity has grown rapidly in recent years around the world. Producing accurate and reliable forecasts of wind power production, together with a quantification of the uncertainty, is…
Certain theoretical aspects of vector autoregression (VAR) as tools to model economic time series are revised, in particular their capacity to include both short term and long term information. The VAR model, in its error correction form,…
Generation and load balance is required in the economic scheduling of generating units in the smart grid. Variable energy generations, particularly from wind and solar energy resources, are witnessing a rapid boost, and, it is anticipated…
We propose a novel cointegrated autoregressive model for matrix-valued time series, with bi-linear cointegrating vectors corresponding to the rows and columns of the matrix data. Compared to the traditional cointegration analysis, our…
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting…
Power curves capture the relationship between wind speed and output power for a specific wind turbine. Accurate regression models of this function prove useful in monitoring, maintenance, design, and planning. In practice, however, the…
The purpose of this paper is to propose a time-varying vector autoregressive model (TV-VAR) for forecasting multivariate time series. The model is casted into a state-space form that allows flexible description and analysis. The volatility…
We study short-term prediction of wind speed and wind power (every 10 minutes up to 4 hours ahead). Accurate forecasts for these quantities are crucial to mitigate the negative effects of wind farms' intermittent production on energy…
Renewable energy generation is of utmost importance for global decarbonization. Forecasting renewable energies, particularly wind energy, is challenging due to the inherent uncertainty in wind energy generation, which depends on weather…
The importance of renewable power production is a set goal in terms of the energy turnaround. Developing short-term wind speed forecasting improvements might increase the profitability of wind power. This article compares two novel…
We propose a fully probabilistic prediction model for spatially aggregated solar photovoltaic (PV) power production at an hourly time scale with lead times up to several days using weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems…
Wind energy makes a significant contribution to global power generation. Predicting wind turbine capacity is becoming increasingly crucial for cleaner production. For this purpose, a new information priority accumulated grey model with time…
The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…
Traditional econometric analyzes represent observations as vectors despite the inherent complexity of empirical data structures. When data are organized along dual classification dimensions, a matrix representation provides a more natural…
Wind farms can be regarded as complex systems that are, on the one hand, coupled to the nonlinear, stochastic characteristics of weather and, on the other hand, strongly influenced by supervisory control mechanisms. One crucial problem in…
The ever-growing use of wind energy makes necessary the optimization of turbine operations through pitch angle controllers and their maintenance with early fault detection. It is crucial to have accurate and robust models imitating the…
The transition from conventional methods of energy production to renewable energy production necessitates better prediction models of the upcoming supply of renewable energy. In wind power production, error in forecasting production is…
Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are widely used to analyze the simultaneous relationships between multiple time-dependent data. Various statistical inference methods have been studied to overcome the identification problems…