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Importance sampling has become an important tool for the computation of tail-based risk measures. Since such quantities are often determined mainly by rare events standard Monte Carlo can be inefficient and importance sampling provides a…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-29 Pierre Nyquist

We consider periodic Markov chains with absorption. Applying to iterates of this periodic Markov chain criteria for the exponential convergence of conditional distributions of aperiodic absorbed Markov chains, we obtain exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-11-08 Nicolas Champagnat , Denis Villemonais

The basic question in perturbation analysis of Markov chains is: how do small changes in the transition kernels of Markov chains translate to chains in their stationary distributions? Many papers on the subject have shown, roughly, that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-13 Na Lin , Yuanyuan Liu , Aaron Smith

We derive new concentration bounds for time averages of measurement outcomes in quantum Markov processes. This generalizes well-known bounds for classical Markov chains which provide constraints on finite time fluctuations of time-additive…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-07-19 Federico Girotti , Juan P. Garrahan , Mădălin Guţă

The asymptotic normality in multi-dimension of the nonparametric estimator of the transition probabilities of a Markov renewal chain is proved, and is applied to that of other nonparametric estimators involved with the associated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-11 Hiroki Ogata , Luis Iván Hernández Ruíz , Kouji Yano

We prove an apparently novel concentration of measure result for Markov tree processes. The bound we derive reduces to the known bounds for Markov processes when the tree is a chain, thus strictly generalizing the known Markov process…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Leonid Kontorovich

We prove concentration inequalities for several models of non-linear random matrices. As corollaries we obtain estimates for linear spectral statistics of the conjugate kernel of neural networks and non-commutative polynomials in (possibly…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-15 Radosław Adamczak

We consider whether ergodic Markov chains with bounded step size remain bounded in probability when their transitions are modified by an adversary on a bounded subset. We provide counterexamples to show that the answer is no in general, and…

Functional inequalities such as the Poincar\'e and log-Sobolev inequalities quantify convergence to equilibrium in continuous-time Markov chains by linking generator properties to variance and entropy decay. However, many applications,…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-20 Bastian Hilder , Patrick van Meurs , Upanshu Sharma

We study the limit behaviour of a generally non-linear ordinary differential equation whose solution is a superadditive generalisation of a stochastic matrix, and provide necessary and sufficient conditions for this solution to be ergodic,…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-21 Jasper De Bock

We prove deviation bounds for the random variable $\sum_{i=1}^{n} f_i(Y_i)$ in which $\{Y_i\}_{i=1}^{\infty}$ is a Markov chain with stationary distribution and state space $[N]$, and $f_i: [N] \rightarrow [-a_i, a_i]$. Our bound improves…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-02 Shravas Rao

We consider a $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued branching random walk with a stationary and ergodic environment $\xi=(\xi_n)$ indexed by time $n\in\mathbb{N}$. Let $Z_n$ be the counting measure of particles of generation $n$. With the help of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-15 Chunmao Huang , Xin Wang , Xiaoqiang Wang

We give computable bounds on the rate of convergence of the transition probabilities to the stationary distribution for a certain class of geometrically ergodic Markov chains. Our results are different from earlier estimates of Meyn and…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Peter H. Baxendale

In this paper we consider the (weighted) spectral measure $\mu_n$ of a $n\times n$ random matrix, distributed according to a classical Gaussian, Laguerre or Jacobi ensemble, and show a moderate deviation principle for the standardised…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-08-27 Jan Nagel

We investigate the use of a certain class of functional inequalities known as weak Poincar\'e inequalities to bound convergence of Markov chains to equilibrium. We show that this enables the straightforward and transparent derivation of…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-25 Christophe Andrieu , Anthony Lee , Sam Power , Andi Q. Wang

There is a lack of methodological results for continuous time change detection due to the challenges of noninformative prior specification and efficient posterior inference in this setting. Most methodologies to date assume data are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-28 Dan Cunha , Mark Friedl , Luis Carvalho

This paper deals with three major types of convergence of probability measures on metric spaces: weak convergence, setwise converges, and convergence in the total variation. First, it describes and compares necessary and sufficient…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-04 Eugene A. Feinberg , Pavlo O. Kasyanov , Michael Z. Zgurovsky

We consider the problem of identity testing of Markov chain transition matrices based on a single trajectory of observations under the distance notion introduced by Daskalakis et al. [2018a] and further analyzed by Cherapanamjeri and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-03-14 Sela Fried , Geoffrey Wolfer

In this paper, we give quantitative bounds on the $f$-total variation distance from convergence of an Harris recurrent Markov chain on an arbitrary under drift and minorisation conditions implying ergodicity at a sub-geometric rate. These…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Randal Douc , Eric Moulines , Philippe Soulier

For a reversible and ergodic Markov chain $\{X_n,n\geq0\}$ with invariant distribution $\pi$, we show that a valid confidence interval for $\pi(h)$ can be constructed whenever the asymptotic variance $\sigma^2_P(h)$ is finite and positive.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-14 Yves F. Atchadé