Related papers: Error-guided likelihood-free MCMC
Many statistical models in cosmology can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihood functions. Likelihood-free inference methods allow us to perform Bayesian inference from these models using only forward simulations, free from…
Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…
Bayesian inference for models with intractable likelihoods, such as Markov random fields, poses a fundamental computational challenge due to the tradeoff between inferential accuracy and computational cost. Various MCMC methods have been…
Recently-proposed particle MCMC methods provide a flexible way of performing Bayesian inference for parameters governing stochastic kinetic models defined as Markov (jump) processes (MJPs). Each iteration of the scheme requires an estimate…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods have recently shown successful results for conditional sampling of generative diffusion models. In this paper we propose a new diffusion posterior SMC sampler achieving improved statistical efficiencies,…
Language models (LMs) are trained on billions of tokens in an attempt to recover the true language distribution. Still, vanilla random sampling from LMs yields low quality generations. Decoding algorithms attempt to restrict the LM…
In Bayesian inverse problems, one aims at characterizing the posterior distribution of a set of unknowns, given indirect measurements. For non-linear/non-Gaussian problems, analytic solutions are seldom available: Sequential Monte Carlo…
Using Markov chain Monte Carlo to sample from posterior distributions was the key innovation which made Bayesian data analysis practical. Notoriously, however, MCMC is hard to tune, hard to diagnose, and hard to parallelize. This…
Likelihood-free inference methods typically make use of a distance between simulated and real data. A common example is the maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), which has previously been used for approximate Bayesian computation, minimum…
Selective inference aims at providing valid inference after a data-driven selection of models or hypotheses. It is essential to avoid overconfident results and replicability issues. While significant advances have been made in this area for…
Bayesian inference provides a methodology for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in machine learning and deep learning methods. Variational inference and Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) sampling methods are used to…
We present new MCMC algorithms for computing the posterior distributions and expectations of the unknown variables in undirected graphical models with regular structure. For demonstration purposes, we focus on Markov Random Fields (MRFs).…
Gaussian Process (GP) models are a powerful and flexible tool for non-parametric regression and classification. Computation for GP models is intensive, since computing the posterior density, $\pi$, for covariance function parameters…
Constructing unbiased estimators from Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) outputs is a difficult problem that has recently received a lot of attention in the statistics and machine learning communities. However, the current unbiased MCMC…
Score-based generative models have recently achieved remarkable success. While they are usually parameterized by the score, an alternative way is to use a series of time-dependent energy-based models (EBMs), where the score is obtained from…
Gaussian process regression can flexibly represent the posterior distribution of an interest parameter given sufficient information on the likelihood. However, in some cases, we have little knowledge regarding the probability model. For…
Model predictive control (MPC) for nonlinear systems suffers a trade-off between the model accuracy and real-time computational burden. One widely used approximation method is the successive linearization MPC (SL-MPC) with EKF method, in…
We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) combined with an "improved" Markov chain Monte Carlo (IMCMC) method to estimate posterior distributions of model parameters in subgrid-scale (SGS) closures for large eddy simulations (LES) of…
We generalize the approach of Liu and Lawrence (1999) for multiple changepoint problems where the number of changepoints is unknown. The approach is based on dynamic programming recursion for efficient calculation of the marginal…
The use of the Bayesian tools in system identification and model updating paradigms has been increased in the last ten years. Usually, the Bayesian techniques can be implemented to incorporate the uncertainties associated with measurements…