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The increasing penetration level of energy generation from renewable sources is demanding for more accurate and reliable forecasting tools to support classic power grid operations (e.g., unit commitment, electricity market clearing or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-17 Michela Moschella , Mauro Tucci , Emanuele Crisostomi , Alessandro Betti

The increasing penetration of variable renewable energy and flexible demand technologies, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps, introduces significant uncertainty in power systems, resulting in greater imbalance; defined as the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-09-08 Timothée Hornek , Sergio Potenciano Menci , Ivan Pavić

As the energy landscape changes quickly, grid operators face several challenges, especially when integrating renewable energy sources with the grid. The most important challenge is to balance supply and demand because the solar and wind…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-24 Kamal Sarkar

In a natural market environment, the price prediction model needs to be updated in real time according to the data obtained by the system to ensure the accuracy of the prediction. In order to improve the user experience of the system, the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-07-14 Zhu Bangyuan

Electricity price forecasting is a critical tool for the efficient operation of power systems and for supporting informed decision-making by market participants. This paper explores a novel methodology aimed at improving the accuracy of…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-13 Bartosz Uniejewski , Florian Ziel

This article develops a deep reinforcement learning (Deep-RL) framework for dynamic pricing on managed lanes with multiple access locations and heterogeneity in travelers' value of time, origin, and destination. This framework relaxes…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-01-28 Venktesh Pandey , Evana Wang , Stephen D. Boyles

Electricity price signals in modern power systems exhibit complex dependence structures that render forecasting inherently challenging. Our analysis of real-world pricing signals from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO)…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-28 Keyi Wang , Jiaxiang Ji , Mahan Mansouri , Ahmed Aziz Ezzat

There are several approaches to modeling and forecasting time series as applied to prices of commodities and financial assets. One of the approaches is to model the price as a non-stationary time series process with heteroscedastic…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-01 Andrei Renatovich Batyrov

We address the need for forecasting methodologies that handle large uncertainties in electricity prices for continuous intraday markets by incorporating parameter uncertainty and using a broad set of covariables. This study presents the…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-11 Daniel Nickelsen , Gernot Müller

Deep-learning techniques have been successfully used for time-series forecasting and have often shown superior performance on many standard benchmark datasets as compared to traditional techniques. Here we present a comprehensive and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-08 Vedant Shah , Gautam Shroff

Growing concerns over climate change call for improved techniques for estimating and quantifying the greenhouse gas emissions associated with electricity generation and transmission. Among the emission metrics designated for power grids,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-11-20 Xuan He , Danny H. K. Tsang , Yize Chen

Short term electricity price forecast is essential in competitive power markets, yet electricity price series exhibit high volatility, irregularity, and non-stationarity. This phenomenon is pronounced in the South Australian region of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Wei Lu , Jay Wang , Dingli Duan , Ding Mao , Caiyi Song , John Huang

The present work addresses the challenge of training neural networks for Dynamic Initial Margin (DIM) computation in counterparty credit risk, a task traditionally burdened by the high costs associated with generating training datasets…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-24 Joel P. Villarino , Álvaro Leitao

Probabilistic electricity price forecasting (PEPF) is vital for short-term electricity markets, yet the multivariate nature of day-ahead prices - spanning 24 consecutive hours - remains underexplored. At the same time, real-time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-27 Simon Hirsch

Seasonal forecasting remains challenging due to the inherent chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics. This paper introduces DeepSeasons, a novel deep learning approach designed to enhance the accuracy and reliability of seasonal forecasts.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-16 A. Navarra , G. G. Navarra

Distribution locational marginal prices (DLMPs) facilitate the efficient operation of low-voltage electric power distribution systems. We propose an approach to internalize the stochasticity of renewable distributed energy resources (DERs)…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2020-04-28 Robert Mieth , Yury Dvorkin

The short-term forecasting of real-time locational marginal price (LMP) and network congestion is considered from a system operator perspective. A new probabilistic forecasting technique is proposed based on a multiparametric programming…

Applications · Statistics 2016-06-28 Yuting Ji , Robert J. Thomas , Lang Tong

An important issue in today's electricity markets is the management of flexibilities offered by new practices, such as smart home appliances or electric vehicles. By inducing changes in the behavior of residential electric utilities, demand…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-09-08 Olivier Bilenne , Paulin Jacquot , Nadia Oudjane , Mathias Staudigl , Cheng Wan , Barbara Franci

Recent advancements in the fields of artificial intelligence and machine learning methods resulted in a significant increase of their popularity in the literature, including electricity price forecasting. Said methods cover a very broad…

Applications · Statistics 2020-08-19 Grzegorz Marcjasz , Jesus Lago , Rafał Weron

Predicting a fast and accurate model for stock price forecasting is been a challenging task and this is an active area of research where it is yet to be found which is the best way to forecast the stock price. Machine learning, deep…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-02-13 Himanshu Gupta , Aditya Jaiswal