Related papers: Simultaneously forecasting global geomagnetic acti…

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events pose severe threats to spacecraft, astronaut safety, and aviation operations. Accurate SEP forecasting remains a critical challenge in space weather research due to their complex origins and highly…

Exogenous variables offer valuable supplementary information for predicting future endogenous variables. Forecasting with exogenous variables needs to consider both past-to-future dependencies (i.e., temporal correlations) and the influence…

Accurate precipitation forecasting is crucial for early warnings of disasters, such as floods and landslides. Traditional forecasts rely on ground-based radar systems, which are space-constrained and have high maintenance costs.…

Solar flares produce radiation which can have an almost immediate effect on the near-Earth environment, making it crucial to forecast flares in order to mitigate their negative effects. The number of published approaches to flare…

Studying the ambient solar wind, a continuous pressure-driven plasma flow emanating from our Sun, is an important component of space weather research. The ambient solar wind flows in interplanetary space determine how solar storms evolve…

In this paper, we propose a novel scenario forecasts approach which can be applied to a broad range of power system operations (e.g., wind, solar, load) over various forecasts horizons and prediction intervals. This approach is model-free…

Wind speed prediction and forecasting is important for various business and management sectors. In this paper, we introduce new models for wind speed prediction based on graph convolutional networks (GCNs). Given hourly data of several…

Here, we propose a general method for probabilistic time series forecasting. We combine an autoregressive recurrent neural network to model temporal dynamics with Implicit Quantile Networks to learn a large class of distributions over a…

The application of machine learning to the study of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their impacts on Earth has seen significant growth recently. Understanding and forecasting CME geoeffectiveness is crucial for protecting infrastructure…

Ensemble weather predictions require statistical post-processing of systematic errors to obtain reliable and accurate probabilistic forecasts. Traditionally, this is accomplished with distributional regression models in which the parameters…

Short Term Load forecasting in this paper uses input data dependent on parameters such as load for current hour and previous two hours, temperature for current hour and previous two hours, wind for current hour and previous two hours, cloud…

Solar flares, as one of the most prominent manifestations of solar activity, have a profound impact on both the Earth's space environment and human activities. As a result, accurate solar flare prediction has emerged as a central topic in…

Efficient integration of solar energy into the electricity mix depends on a reliable anticipation of its intermittency. A promising approach to forecast the temporal variability of solar irradiance resulting from the cloud cover dynamics is…

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are crucial for predicting future climate changes by simulating the Earth systems. However, the GCM Outputs exhibit systematic biases due to model uncertainties, parameterization simplifications, and inadequate…

Forecasting graph-based, time-dependent data has broad practical applications but presents challenges. Effective models must capture both spatial and temporal dependencies in the data, while also incorporating auxiliary information to…

As the role played by statistical and computational sciences in climate and environmental modelling and prediction becomes more important, Machine Learning researchers are becoming more aware of the relevance of their work to help tackle…

Global warming leads to the increase in frequency and intensity of climate extremes that cause tremendous loss of lives and property. Accurate long-range climate prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster risk management for…

Forecasting violent conflict at high spatial and temporal resolution remains a central challenge for both researchers and policymakers. This study presents a novel neural network architecture for forecasting three distinct types of violence…

Accurate renewable energy forecasting is essential to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and enabling grid decarbonization. However, current approaches fail to effectively integrate the rich spatial context of weather patterns with their…

Geodetic time series -- such as Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positions, satellite altimetry-derived sea surface height (SSH), and tide gauge (TG) records -- is essential for monitoring surface deformation and sea level change.…