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A number of algorithms have been developed to solve probabilistic inference problems on belief networks. These algorithms can be divided into two main groups: exact techniques which exploit the conditional independence revealed when the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-08 Ross D. Shachter , Mark Alan Peot

A common setting for scientific inference is the ability to sample from a high-fidelity forward model (simulation) without having an explicit probability density of the data. We propose a simulation-based maximum likelihood deconvolution…

Accurate simulation of physical processes is crucial for the success of modern particle physics. However, simulating the development and interaction of particle showers with calorimeter detectors is a time consuming process and drives the…

Instrumentation and Detectors · Physics 2021-05-28 Erik Buhmann , Sascha Diefenbacher , Engin Eren , Frank Gaede , Gregor Kasieczka , Anatolii Korol , Katja Krüger

Engineering and applied sciences use models of increasing complexity to simulate the behaviour of manufactured and physical systems. Propagation of uncertainties from the input to a response quantity of interest through such models may…

Computation · Statistics 2016-06-29 K. Konakli , B. Sudret

We can, and should, do statistical inference on simulation models by adjusting the parameters in the simulation so that the values of {\em randomly chosen} functions of the simulation output match the values of those same functions…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-18 Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

In data-driven SHM, the signals recorded from systems in operation can be noisy and incomplete. Data corresponding to each of the operational, environmental, and damage states are rarely available a priori; furthermore, labelling to…

LHC physics crucially relies on our ability to simulate events efficiently from first principles. Modern machine learning, specifically generative networks, will help us tackle simulation challenges for the coming LHC runs. Such networks…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2020-08-20 Anja Butter , Tilman Plehn

Probabilistic inference is a fundamental task in modern machine learning. Recent advances in tensor network (TN) contraction algorithms have enabled the development of better exact inference methods. However, many common inference tasks in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Martin Roa-Villescas , Xuanzhao Gao , Sander Stuijk , Henk Corporaal , Jin-Guo Liu

Machine learning techniques are powerful tools for construction of emulators for complex systems. We explore different machine learning methods and conceptual methodologies, ranging from functional approximations to dynamical…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Hannah Lu , Dinara Ermakova , Haruko Murakami Wainwright , Liange Zheng , Daniel M. Tartakovsky

Simulation-based inference (SBI) enables parameter inference by training neural networks on forward simulations. It is being applied both for intractable likelihoods as well as under time constraints on the posterior sampling. After…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-12 Leander Thiele

We present a new approach to simulating Hamiltonian dynamics based on implementing linear combinations of unitary operations rather than products of unitary operations. The resulting algorithm has superior performance to existing simulation…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2018-08-02 Andrew M. Childs , Nathan Wiebe

Simulation-based inference has been popular for amortized Bayesian computation. It is typical to have more than one posterior approximation, from different inference algorithms, different architectures, or simply the randomness of…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-04 Yuling Yao , Bruno Régaldo-Saint Blancard , Justin Domke

When classical particle filtering algorithms are used for maximum likelihood parameter estimation in nonlinear state-space models, a key challenge is that estimates of the likelihood function and its derivatives are inherently noisy. The…

Computation · Statistics 2017-11-30 Andreas Svensson , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

The sheer scale of high-resolution raw data generated by simulation has motivated non-conventional approaches for data exploration referred as `immersive' and `in situ' query processing of the raw simulation data. Another step towards…

Databases · Computer Science 2015-08-25 Bernardo Gonçalves , Fabio Porto

Computer models are used to model complex processes in various disciplines. Often, a key source of uncertainty in the behavior of complex computer models is uncertainty due to unknown model input parameters. Statistical computer model…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-02 Won Chang , Murali Haran , Roman Olson , Klaus Keller

Simulation models often have parameters as input and return outputs to understand the behavior of complex systems. Calibration is the process of estimating the values of the parameters in a simulation model in light of observed data from…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-15 Özge Sürer

Almost all fields of science rely upon statistical inference to estimate unknown parameters in theoretical and computational models. While the performance of modern computer hardware continues to grow, the computational requirements for the…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-25 David J. Warne , Ruth E. Baker , Matthew J. Simpson

All simulation approaches eventually face limits in computational scalability when applied to large spatiotemporal domains. This challenge becomes especially apparent in molecular-level particle simulations, where high spatial and temporal…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-10-23 Matthias Busch , Gregor Häfner , Jiayu Xie , Marius Tacke , Marcus Müller , Christian J. Cyron , Roland C. Aydin

Particle filtering is a popular method for inferring latent states in stochastic dynamical systems, whose theoretical properties have been well studied in machine learning and statistics communities. In many control problems, e.g.,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-12 Simon S. Du , Wei Hu , Zhiyuan Li , Ruoqi Shen , Zhao Song , Jiajun Wu

Simulator-based models are models for which the likelihood is intractable but simulation of synthetic data is possible. They are often used to describe complex real-world phenomena, and as such can often be misspecified in practice.…

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