Related papers: Model-based bias correction for short AR(1) and AR…
The first-order autoregressive process, AR (1), has been widely used and implemented in time series analysis. Different estimation methods have been employed in order to estimate the autoregressive parameter. This article focuses on…
Time series prediction with missing values is an important problem of time series analysis since complete data is usually hard to obtain in many real-world applications. To model the generation of time series, autoregressive (AR) model is a…
Stationary processes have been extensively studied in the literature. Their applications include modeling and forecasting numerous real life phenomena such as natural disasters, sales and market movements. When stationary processes are…
In this paper, we present the asymptotic properties of the moment estimator for autoregressive (AR for short) models subject to Markovian changes in regime under the assumption that the errors are uncorrelated but not necessarily…
In this paper, we consider the normalized least squares estimator of the parameter in a mildly stationary first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) model with dependent errors which are modeled as a mildly stationary AR(1) process. By martingale…
Shrinkage algorithms are of great importance in almost every area of statistics due to the increasing impact of big data. Especially time series analysis benefits from efficient and rapid estimation techniques such as the lasso. However,…
This paper considers a first-order autoregressive panel data model with individual-specific effects and heterogeneous autoregressive coefficients defined on the interval (-1,1], thus allowing for some of the individual processes to have…
Understanding the time-varying structure of complex temporal systems is one of the main challenges of modern time series analysis. In this paper, we show that every uniformly-positive-definite-in-covariance and sufficiently short-range…
Current time-series forecasting models are primarily based on transformer-style neural networks. These models achieve long-term forecasting mainly by scaling up the model size rather than through genuinely autoregressive (AR) rollout. From…
An extension of the RINAR(1) process for modelling discrete-time dependent counting processes is considered. The model RINAR(p) investigated here is a direct and natural extension of the real AR(p) model. Compared to classical INAR(p)…
Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…
The Lasso is a popular model selection and estimation procedure for linear models that enjoys nice theoretical properties. In this paper, we study the Lasso estimator for fitting autoregressive time series models. We adopt a double…
Given the scarcity of anomalies in real-world applications, the majority of literature has been focusing on modeling normality. The learned representations enable anomaly detection as the normality model is trained to capture certain key…
In this paper we present a new framework for time-series modeling that combines the best of traditional statistical models and neural networks. We focus on time-series with long-range dependencies, needed for monitoring fine granularity…
Autoregressive models are ubiquitous tools for the analysis of time series in many domains such as computational neuroscience and biomedical engineering. In these domains, data is, for example, collected from measurements of brain activity.…
This project revolves around studying estimators for parameters in different Time Series models and studying their assymptotic properties. We introduce various bootstrap techniques for the estimators obtained. Our special emphasis is on…
The autoregressive (AR) models are used to represent the time-varying random process in which output depends linearly on previous terms and a stochastic term (the innovation). In the classical version, the AR models are based on normal…
The autoregressive process of order $p$ (AR($p$)) is a central model in time series analysis. A Bayesian approach requires the user to define a prior distribution for the coefficients of the AR($p$) model. Although it is easy to write down…
This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…
Estimating the periodicity of a stationary time series via fitting a second order stationary autoregressive (AR(2)) model has been initiated by the seminal paper of Yule(1927).. We investigate properties of this procedure when applied to a…