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We consider here together the inference questions and the change-point problem in Poisson autoregressions (see Tj{\o}stheim, 2012). The conditional mean (or intensity) of the process is involved as a non-linear function of it past values…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-09 Paul Doukhan , William Kengne

Informally, a 'spurious correlation' is the dependence of a model on some aspect of the input data that an analyst thinks shouldn't matter. In machine learning, these have a know-it-when-you-see-it character; e.g., changing the gender of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-04 Victor Veitch , Alexander D'Amour , Steve Yadlowsky , Jacob Eisenstein

The property of conformal predictors to guarantee the required accuracy rate makes this framework attractive in various practical applications. However, this property is achieved at a price of reduction in precision. In the case of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-13 Marharyta Aleksandrova , Oleg Chertov

Starting from the characterization of the past time evolution of market prices in terms of two fundamental indicators, price velocity and price acceleration, we construct a general classification of the possible patterns characterizing the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 J. V. Andersen , S. Gluzman , D. Sornette

Randomization tests deliver exact finite-sample Type 1 error control when the null satisfies the randomization hypothesis. In practice, achieving these guarantees often requires stronger conditions than the null hypothesis of primary…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-03 Deniz Dutz , Xinyi Zhang

We consider functional linear regression models where functional outcomes are associated with scalar predictors by coefficient functions with shape constraints, such as monotonicity and convexity, that apply to sub-domains of interest. To…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-09 Kyunghee Han , Yeonjoo Park , Soo-Young Kim

Quantum work fluctuation theorems are known to hold when the work is defined as the difference between the outcomes of projective measurements carried out on the Hamiltonian of the system at the initial and the final time instants of the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-07-20 Sourabh Lahiri , Subhashish Banerjee , A. M. Jayannavar

This paper introduces a conformal inference method to evaluate uncertainty in classification by generating prediction sets with valid coverage conditional on adaptively chosen features. These features are carefully selected to reflect…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-31 Yanfei Zhou , Matteo Sesia

For testing the statistical significance of a treatment effect, we usually compare between two parts of a population, one is exposed to the treatment, and the other is not exposed to it. Standard parametric and nonparametric two-sample…

Computation · Statistics 2012-11-02 Bikram Karmakar , Kumaresh Dhara , Kushal Kumar Dey , Analabha Basu , Anil Ghosh

Clustered observations are ubiquitous in controlled and observational studies and arise naturally in multi-centre trials or longitudinal surveys. We present a novel model for the analysis of clustered observations where the marginal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-03 Luisa Barbanti , Torsten Hothorn

Statistical models that include random effects are commonly used to analyze longitudinal and correlated data, often with strong and parametric assumptions about the random effects distribution. There is marked disagreement in the literature…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-01-11 Charles E. McCulloch , John M. Neuhaus

Functional Data Analysis represents a field of growing interest in statistics. Despite several studies have been proposed leading to fundamental results, the problem of obtaining valid and efficient prediction sets has not been thoroughly…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-13 Jacopo Diquigiovanni , Matteo Fontana , Simone Vantini

Functional data analysis is becoming increasingly popular to study data from real-valued random functions. Nevertheless, there is a lack of multiple testing procedures for such data. These are particularly important in factorial designs to…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-04 Merle Munko , Marc Ditzhaus , Markus Pauly , Łukasz Smaga

It would be interesting to investigate the accuracy of the results obtained in the variational method, because it is important for studying hadron spectra. One can define some criteria to judge the accuracy, or the quality of the trial…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2007-05-23 Yi-Bing Ding , Xue-Qian Li , Peng-Nian Shen

This paper proposes new parametric model adequacy tests for possibly nonlinear and nonstationary time series models with noncontinuous data distribution, which is often the case in applied work. In particular, we consider the correct…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-10 Igor Kheifets , Carlos Velasco

A popular framework for false discovery control is the random effects model in which the null hypotheses are assumed to be independent. This paper generalizes the random effects model to a conditional dependence model which allows…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Wei Biao Wu

We propose a general framework for the specification testing of continuous treatment effect models. We assume a general residual function, which includes the average and quantile treatment effect models as special cases. The null models are…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-09-06 Wei Huang , Oliver Linton , Zheng Zhang

Comparing outcomes across treatments is essential in medicine and public policy. To do so, researchers typically estimate a set of parameters, possibly counterfactual, with each targeting a different treatment. Treatment-specific means are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Alec McClean , Yiting Li , Sunjae Bae , Mara A. McAdams-DeMarco , Iván Díaz , Wenbo Wu

When are asymptotic approximations using the delta-method uniformly valid? We provide sufficient conditions as well as closely related necessary conditions for uniform negligibility of the remainder of such approximations. These conditions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-07-22 Maximilian Kasy

In this article we differentiate and characterize the standard two-process serial models and the standard two process parallel models by investigating the behavior of (conditional) distributions of the total completion times and survivals…

Applications · Statistics 2017-12-05 Ru Zhang , Yanjun Liu , James T. Townsend