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In this paper, a stochastic model with regime switching is developed for solar photo-voltaic (PV) power in order to provide short-term probabilistic forecasts. The proposed model for solar PV power is physics inspired and explicitly…
A number of industrial applications, such as smart grids, power plant operation, hybrid system management or energy trading, could benefit from improved short-term solar forecasting, addressing the intermittent energy production from solar…
With an ever-increasing share of intermittent renewable energy in the world's energy mix,there is an increasing need for advanced solar power forecasting models to optimize the operation and control of solar power plants. In order to…
Accurate estimation of solar irradiance is essential for reliable modelling of solar photovoltaic (PV) power production. In Ireland's highly variable maritime climate, where ground-based measurement stations are sparsely distributed,…
Owing to the growing concern of global warming and over-dependence on fossil fuels, there has been a huge interest in last years in the deployment of Photovoltaic (PV) systems for generating electricity. The output power of a PV array…
Predicting the intensity and amount of sunlight as a function of location and time is an essential component in identifying promising locations for economical solar farming. Although weather models and irradiance data are relatively…
Accurate and reliable forecasting of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is crucial for grid operations, electricity markets, and energy planning, as solar systems now contribute a significant share of the electricity supply in many…
Amongst all the renewable energy resources (RES), solar is the most popular form of energy source and is of particular interest for its widely integration into the power grid. However, due to the intermittent nature of solar source, it is…
As the use of solar power increases, having accurate and timely forecasts will be essential for smooth grid operators. There are many proposed methods for forecasting solar irradiance / solar power production. However, many of these methods…
The high penetration of volatile renewable energy sources such as solar make methods for coping with the uncertainty associated with them of paramount importance. Probabilistic forecasts are an example of these methods, as they assist…
Due to the stochastic nature of photovoltaic (PV) power generation, there is high demand for forecasting PV output to better integrate PV generation into power grids. Systematic knowledge regarding the factors influencing forecast accuracy…
Despite the advances in the field of solar energy, improvements of solar forecasting techniques, addressing the intermittent electricity production, remain essential for securing its future integration into a wider energy supply. A…
Machine learning classifiers are probabilistic in nature, and thus inevitably involve uncertainty. Predicting the probability of a specific input to be correct is called uncertainty (or confidence) estimation and is crucial for risk…
Accurate forecasting is critical for reliable power grid operations, particularly as the share of renewable generation, such as wind and solar, continues to grow. Given the inherent uncertainty and variability in renewable generation,…
Surface solar irradiance (SSI) plays a crucial role in tackling climate change - as an abundant, non-fossil energy source, exploited primarily via photovoltaic (PV) energy production. With the growing contribution of SSI to total energy…
Space weather events may cause damage to several fields, including aviation, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are one of the most significant events, and…
Spatio-temporal forecasting is crucial in many domains, such as transportation, meteorology, and energy. However, real-world scenarios frequently present challenges such as signal anomalies, noise, and distributional shifts. Existing…
Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are important for a wide range of applications, ranging from operational decision making in connection with wind power generation to storm warnings, ship routing and aviation. We present a statistical…
Accurate production forecasts are essential to continue facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. This paper illustrates how to obtain probabilistic day-ahead forecasts of wind power generation via…
Estimation of the generated power of renewable energy resources is in general important for planning operations as well as demand balance and power quality. This paper addresses the problem of the estimation of the short-term (3-hour ahead)…