Related papers: How to search for multiple messengers -- a general…

The Bayesian persuasion paradigm of strategic communication models interaction between a privately-informed agent, called the sender, and an ignorant but rational agent, called the receiver. The goal is typically to design a (near-)optimal…

We consider the problem of jointly testing multiple hypotheses and estimating a random parameter of the underlying distribution. This problem is investigated in a sequential setup under mild assumptions on the underlying random process. The…

Model-independent methods in cosmology has become an essential tool in order to deal with an increasing number of theoretical alternatives for explaining the late-time acceleration of the Universe. In principle, this provides a way of…

Hierarchical models are increasingly used in many applications. Along with this increased use comes a desire to investigate whether the model is compatible with the observed data. Bayesian methods are well suited to eliminate the many…

We consider a Bayesian persuasion or information design problem where the sender tries to persuade the receiver to take a particular action via a sequence of signals. This we model by considering multi-phase trials with different…

This study proposes a mathematical model to optimally locate a set of detectors in such a way that the expected number of casualties in a given threat area can be minimized. Detectors may not be perfectly reliable, which is often a function…

Gaudi, Naber & Sackett pointed out that if an event is caused by a lens system containing more than two planets, all planets will affect the central region of the magnification pattern, and thus the existence of the multiple planets can be…

We propose an analytical solution to the on-off problem within the framework of Bayesian statistics. Both the statistical significance for the discovery of new phenomena and credible intervals on model parameters are presented in a…

With the advent of time-domain astronomy and the game-changing next generation of telescopes, we have unprecedented opportunities to explore the most energetic events in our Universe through electromagnetic radiation, gravitational waves,…

Given a standard model to test, an experiment can be designed to: (i) measure the standard model parameters; (ii) extend the standard model; or (iii) look for evidence of deviations from the standard model. To measure (or extend) the…

We consider constructing model selection criteria for evaluating nonlinear mixed effects models via basis expansions. Mean functions and random functions in the mixed effects model are expressed by basis expansions, then they are estimated…

The growing proliferation of customized and pretrained generative models has made it infeasible for a user to be fully cognizant of every model in existence. To address this need, we introduce the task of content-based model search: given a…

The precision era of multi-messenger astronomy, together with modern astrophysical, cosmological, and gravitational wave observations, increasingly points toward the existence of a ``dark" sector that cannot be explained within the…

The timing of radio pulsars in binary systems provides a superb testing ground of general relativity. Here we propose a Bayesian approach to carry out these tests, and a relevant efficient numerical implementation, that has several…

Wide-field gamma-ray telescopes typically have highly variable event-by-event resolution which leads to a number of unique and challenging analysis requirements -- particularly when conducting transient searches over multiple time scales.…

Following the discovery of the brightest high-energy neutrino sources in the sky, the further detection of fainter sources is more challenging. A natural solution is to combine fainter source candidates, and instead of individual…

Several high energy, >100 GeV, neutrino telescopes are currently operating or under construction. Their main motivation is the extension of the horizon of neutrino astronomy to cosmological scales. We show that general, model independent,…

For several decades now, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to theories of particle physics, cosmology and astrophysics to obtain the probability density functions of their free parameters. In this study, we review and compare…

We provide a brief overview of both Bayes and classical model selection. We argue tentatively that model selection has at least two major goals, that of finding the correct model or predicting well, and that in general both these goals may…

There are so many models in the literature that it is difficult for practitioners to decide which combinations are likely to be effective for a new task. This paper attempts to address this question by capturing relationships among…