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We adopt an artificial counterfactual approach to assess the impact of lockdowns on the short-run evolution of the number of cases and deaths in some US states. To do so, we explore the different timing in which US states adopted lockdown…

To reduce the spread and the effect of the COVID-19 global pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been adopted on multiple occasions by governments. In particular lockdown policies, i.e., generalized mobility restrictions,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-08-06 Alex Smolyak , Giovanni Bonaccorsi , Andrea Flori , Fabio Pammolli , Shlomo Havlin

Contact tracing has been extensively studied from different perspectives in recent years. However, there is no clear indication of why this intervention has proven effective in some epidemics (SARS) and mostly ineffective in some others…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2021-03-01 Quyu Kong , Manuel Garcia-Herranz , Ivan Dotu , Manuel Cebrian

Understanding human mobility is crucial for urban and transport studies in cities. People's daily activities provide valuable insight, such as where people live, work, shop, leisure or eat during midday or after-work hours. However, such…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2023-09-13 Roberto Murcio , Nilufer Sari Aslam , Joana Barros

As the COVID-19 epidemic began to worsen in the first months of 2020, stringent lockdown policies were implemented in numerous cities throughout the world to control human transmission and mitigate its spread. Although transportation…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-07-15 Chen Wu , Sihan Zhu , Jiaqi Yang , Meiqi Hu , Bo Du , Liangpei Zhang , Lefei Zhang , Chengxi Han , Meng Lan

In this paper, we study the trending behaviour of COVID-19 data at country level, and draw attention to some existing econometric tools which are potentially helpful to understand the trend better in future studies. In our empirical study,…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-06-25 Chaohua Dong , Jiti Gao , Oliver Linton , Bin Peng

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented global public health challenge. In the United States (US), state governments have implemented various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as physical distance…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-15 Shanghong Xie , Wenbo Wang , Qinxia Wang , Yuanjia Wang , Donglin Zeng

As the COVID19 spreads across the world, prevention measures are becoming the essential weapons to combat the pandemic in the period of crisis. The lockdown measure is the most controversial one as it imposes an overwhelming impact on our…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-02-12 Yuting Fu , Haitao Xiang , Hanqing Jin , Ning Wang

This article considers the minimization of the total number of infected individuals over the course of an epidemic in which the rate of infectious contacts can be reduced by time-dependent nonpharmaceutical interventions. The societal and…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-16 Tom Britton , Lasse Leskelä

Governments issue "stay at home" orders to reduce the spread of contagious diseases, but the magnitude of such orders' effectiveness is uncertain. In the United States these orders were not coordinated at the national level during the…

Applications · Statistics 2020-05-11 James H. Fowler , Seth J. Hill , Remy Levin , Nick Obradovich

We propose a simple SIR model in order to investigate the impact of various confinement strategies on a most virulent epidemic. Our approach is motivated by the current COVID-19 pandemic. The main hypothesis is the existence of two…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-12-30 G. Nakamura , B. Grammaticos , M. Badoual

Near-real time estimations of the effective reproduction number are among the most important tools to track the progression of a pandemic and to inform policy makers and the general public. However, these estimations rely on reported case…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-07-25 Eszter Bokányi , Zsolt Vizi , Júlia Koltai , Gergely Röst , Márton Karsai

We analysed publicly available data on place of occurrence of COVID-19 deaths from national statistical agencies in the UK between March 9 2020 and February 28 2021. We introduce a modified Weibull model that describes the deaths due to…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-30 Spencer A. Thomas

National stay-at-home orders, or lockdowns, were imposed in several countries to drastically reduce the social interactions mainly responsible for the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Despite being essential to slow down the COVID-19…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-11-03 Adrià Plazas , Irene Malvestio , Michele Starnini , Albert Díaz-Guilera

Regional quarantine policies, in which a portion of a population surrounding infections are locked down, are an important tool to contain disease. However, jurisdictional governments -- such as cities, counties, states, and countries -- act…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-06-10 Arun G. Chandrasekhar , Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham , Matthew O. Jackson , Samuel Thau

This work is inspired by the outbreak of COVID-19, and some of the challenges we have observed with gathering data about the disease. To this end, we aim to help collect data about citizens and the disease without risking the privacy of…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2020-05-01 Katrine Tjell , Jaron Skovsted Gundersen , Rafael Wisniewski

In order to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world have introduced social distancing guidelines as public health interventions to reduce the spread of the disease. However, monitoring the efficacy of these guidelines at a…

The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the world in unprecedented and unpredictable ways. Human mobility is at the epicenter of that change, as the greatest facilitator for the spread of the virus. To study the change in mobility, to evaluate…

During the Covid-19 pandemic, most governments across the world imposed policies like lock-down of public spaces and restrictions on people's movements to minimize the spread of the virus through physical contact. However, such policies…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2021-09-10 Gaurav Suryawanshi , Varun Madhavan , Adway Mitra , Partha Pratim Chakrabarti

Mobility data at EU scale can help understand the dynamics of the pandemic and possibly limit the impact of future waves. Still, since a reliable and consistent method to measure the evolution of contagion at international level is missing,…