Related papers: Uncertainty in Neural Processes

Bayesian inference and the use of posterior or posterior predictive probabilities for decision making have become increasingly popular in clinical trials. The current practice in Bayesian clinical trials relies on a hybrid…

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

Model selection aims to identify a sufficiently well performing model that is possibly simpler than the most complex model among a pool of candidates. However, the decision-making process itself can inadvertently introduce non-negligible…

Deep learning models are widely used across computer vision and other domains. When working on the model induction, selecting the right architecture for a given dataset often relies on repetitive trial-and-error procedures. This procedure…

Inspired from human cognition, machine learning systems are gradually revealing advantages of sparser and more modular architectures. Recent work demonstrates that not only do some modular architectures generalize well, but they also lead…

Developing new ways to estimate probabilities can be valuable for science, statistics, and engineering. By considering the information content of different output patterns, recent work invoking algorithmic information theory has shown that…

Bayesian inference has theoretical attractions as a principled framework for reasoning about beliefs. However, the motivations of Bayesian inference which claim it to be the only 'rational' kind of reasoning do not apply in practice. They…

Arguments in favor of injecting symbolic knowledge into neural architectures abound. When done right, constraining a sub-symbolic model can substantially improve its performance and sample complexity and prevent it from predicting invalid…

We study a theoretical and algorithmic framework for structured prediction in the online learning setting. The problem of structured prediction, i.e. estimating function where the output space lacks a vectorial structure, is well studied in…

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

An algorithm effects a causal representation of relations between features and labels in the human's perception. Such a representation might conflict with the human's prior belief. Explanations can direct the human's attention to the…

When deployed for risk-sensitive tasks, deep neural networks must include an uncertainty estimation mechanism. Here we examine the relationship between deep architectures and their respective training regimes, with their corresponding…

In comparison to classical shallow representation learning techniques, deep neural networks have achieved superior performance in nearly every application benchmark. But despite their clear empirical advantages, it is still not well…

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to represent and quantify model-form uncertainties in the reduced-order modeling of complex systems using operator inference techniques. Such uncertainties can arise in the selection of an…

The empirical Bayes estimators in mixed models are useful for small area estimation in the sense of increasing precision of prediction for small area means, and one wants to know the prediction errors of the empirical Bayes estimators based…

Inference in large-scale AI models is typically performed on dense parameter matrices, leading to inference cost and system complexity that scale unsustainably with model size. This limitation does not arise from insufficient model…

Undesired bias afflicts both human and algorithmic decision making, and may be especially prevalent when information processing trade-offs incentivize the use of heuristics. One primary example is \textit{statistical discrimination} --…

The paper considers the problem of multi-objective decision support when outcomes are uncertain. We extend the concept of Pareto-efficient decisions to take into account the uncertainty of decision outcomes across varying contexts. This…

Turning pass-through network architectures into iterative ones, which use their own output as input, is a well-known approach for boosting performance. In this paper, we argue that such architectures offer an additional benefit: The…

We present a new approach to automatic amortized inference in universal probabilistic programs which improves performance compared to current methods. Our approach is a variation of inference compilation (IC) which leverages deep neural…