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Many problems in engineering and sciences require the solution of large scale optimization constrained by partial differential equations (PDEs). Though PDE-constrained optimization is itself challenging, most applications pose additional…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-01-06 Joseph Hart , Bart van Bloemen Waanders , Roland Herzog

The recent statistical finite element method (statFEM) provides a coherent statistical framework to synthesise finite element models with observed data. Through embedding uncertainty inside of the governing equations, finite element…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-30 Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Connor Duffin , Sotirios Sabanis , Mark Girolami

Inverse design is a central goal in much of science and engineering, including frequency-selective surfaces (FSS) that are critical to microelectronics for telecommunications and optical metamaterials. Traditional surrogate-assisted…

Uncertainties from model parameters and model discrepancy from small-scale models impact the accuracy and reliability of predictions of large-scale systems. Inadequate representation of these uncertainties may result in inaccurate and…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-18 K. Sham Bhat , David S. Mebane , Curtis B. Storlie , Priyadarshi Mahapatra

The dominant paradigm in computational materials discovery relies on heavily parameterized deep architectures, including message-passing graph networks and equivariant models, that require millions of DFT-labeled training structures and…

Materials Science · Physics 2026-05-19 Pranoy Ray , Surya R. Kalidindi

Deep Learning (DL) methods have been transforming computer vision with innovative adaptations to other domains including climate change. For DL to pervade Science and Engineering (S&E) applications where risk management is a core component,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-25 Thomas Vandal , Evan Kodra , Jennifer Dy , Sangram Ganguly , Ramakrishna Nemani , Auroop R. Ganguly

We explore a stochastic model that enables capturing external influences in two specific ways. The model allows for the expression of uncertainty in the parametrisation of the stochastic dynamics and incorporates patterns to account for…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-11 Felix L. Wolf , Griselda Deelstra , Lech A. Grzelak

Parameter inference and uncertainty quantification are important steps when relating mathematical models to real-world observations, and when estimating uncertainty in model predictions. However, methods for doing this can be…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-08-27 Michael J. Plank , Matthew J. Simpson

In this work, we present a new class of models, called uncertain-input models, that allows us to treat system-identification problems in which a linear system is subject to a partially unknown input signal. To encode prior information about…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-09-12 Riccardo Sven Risuleo , Giulio Bottegal , Håkan Hjalmarsson

Self-organizing systems demonstrate how simple local rules can generate complex stochastic patterns. Many natural systems rely on such dynamics, making self-organization central to understanding natural complexity. A fundamental challenge…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2026-01-12 Elias Najarro , Nicolas Bessone , Sebastian Risi

Methods have been developed to identify the probability distribution of a random vector $Z$ from information consisting of its bounded range and the probability density function or moments of a quantity of interest, $Q(Z)$. The mapping from…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-01-16 Wayne Isaac T. Uy , Mircea D. Grigoriu

Crystal graph neural networks are widely applicable in modeling experimentally synthesized compounds and hypothetical materials with unknown synthesizability. In contrast, structure-agnostic predictive algorithms allow exploring previously…

Materials Science · Physics 2025-11-06 Ivan Rubtsov , Ivan Dudakov , Yuri Kuratov , Vadim Korolev

Data-driven forecasts of air quality have recently achieved more accurate short-term predictions. Despite their success, most of the current data-driven solutions lack proper quantifications of model uncertainty that communicate how much to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-07 Abdulmajid Murad , Frank Alexander Kraemer , Kerstin Bach , Gavin Taylor

A particularly challenging problem in AI safety is providing guarantees on the behavior of high-dimensional autonomous systems. Verification approaches centered around reachability analysis fail to scale, and purely statistical approaches…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Souradeep Dutta , Michele Caprio , Vivian Lin , Matthew Cleaveland , Kuk Jin Jang , Ivan Ruchkin , Oleg Sokolsky , Insup Lee

Uncertainty quantification plays an important role in achieving trustworthy and reliable learning-based computational imaging. Recent advances in generative modeling and Bayesian neural networks have enabled the development of…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-07 Canberk Ekmekci , Mujdat Cetin

While neural networks have demonstrated impressive performance across various tasks, accurately quantifying uncertainty in their predictions is essential to ensure their trustworthiness and enable widespread adoption in critical systems.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-11 Joseph Wilson , Chris van der Heide , Liam Hodgkinson , Fred Roosta

Reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) is essential for ensuring trustworthy downstream use of large language models, especially when they are deployed in decision-support and other knowledge-intensive applications. Model certainty can be…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Autumn Toney-Wails , Ryan Wails

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is vital for trustworthy deep learning, yet existing methods are either computationally intensive, such as Bayesian or ensemble methods, or provide only partial, task-specific estimates, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-18 Zhizhong Zhao , Ke Chen

Machine Learning (ML) is accelerating the progress of materials prediction and classification, with particular success in CGNN designs. While classical ML methods remain accessible, advanced deep networks are still challenging to build and…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2025-02-04 Gavin Nop , Micah Mundy , Durga Paudyal , Jonathan Smith

Uncertainty quantification by ensemble learning is explored in terms of an application from computational optical form measurements. The application requires to solve a large-scale, nonlinear inverse problem. Ensemble learning is used to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-03 Lara Hoffmann , Ines Fortmeier , Clemens Elster
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