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Existing generative models for time series forecasting often transform simple priors (typically Gaussian) into complex data distributions. However, their sampling initialization, independent of historical data, hinders the capture of…
Markov Population Models are a widespread formalism used to model the dynamics of complex systems, with applications in Systems Biology and many other fields. The associated Markov stochastic process in continuous time is often analyzed by…
Probabilistic generative models based on measure transport, such as diffusion and flow-based models, are often formulated in the language of Markovian stochastic dynamics, where the choice of the underlying process impacts both algorithmic…
Linear fractional Galton-Watson branching processes in i.i.d.~random environment are, on the quenched level, intimately connected to random difference equations by the evolution of the random parameters of their linear fractional marginals.…
Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) has been a default technique in various visual generative models, yet it requires inference from both conditional and unconditional models during sampling. We propose to build visual models that are free from…
We introduce the Contextual Graph Markov Model, an approach combining ideas from generative models and neural networks for the processing of graph data. It founds on a constructive methodology to build a deep architecture comprising layers…
Autoregressive (AR) models have emerged as powerful tools for image generation by modeling images as sequences of discrete tokens. While Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG) has been adopted to improve conditional generation, its application in…
Counterfactual generation aims to simulate realistic hypothetical outcomes under causal interventions. Diffusion models have emerged as a powerful tool for this task, combining DDIM inversion with conditional generation and classifier-free…
We propose a dynamic factor model (DFM) where the latent factors are linked to observed variables with unknown and potentially nonlinear functions. The key novelty and source of flexibility of our approach is a nonparametric observation…
Recent advancements in generative modeling, particularly diffusion models, have opened new directions for time series modeling, achieving state-of-the-art performance in forecasting and synthesis. However, the reliance of diffusion-based…
Ancestral graph models, introduced by Richardson and Spirtes (2002), generalize both Markov random fields and Bayesian networks to a class of graphs with a global Markov property that is closed under conditioning and marginalization. By…
Generative models on discrete state-spaces have a wide range of potential applications, particularly in the domain of natural sciences. In continuous state-spaces, controllable and flexible generation of samples with desired properties has…
Conditional particle filters (CPFs) are powerful smoothing algorithms for general nonlinear/non-Gaussian hidden Markov models. However, CPFs can be inefficient or difficult to apply with diffuse initial distributions, which are common in…
Data refinement is the standard extension of a refinement relation from programs to datatypes (i.e. a behavioural subtyping relation). Forward/backward simulations provide a tractable method for establishing data refinement, and have been…
In generative modeling, we often wish to produce samples that maximize a user-specified reward such as aesthetic quality or alignment with human preferences, a problem known as \textit{guidance}. Despite their widespread use, existing…
The task of deducing three-dimensional molecular configurations from their two-dimensional graph representations holds paramount importance in the fields of computational chemistry and pharmaceutical development. The rapid advancement of…
A graphical model is a structured representation of the data generating process. The traditional method to reason over random variables is to perform inference in this graphical model. However, in many cases the generating process is only a…
We show that each member of a broad class of Markovian population models induces a unique stochastic process on the space of genealogies. We construct this genealogy process and derive exact expressions for the likelihood of an observed…
Autoregressive state transitions, where predictions are conditioned on past predictions, are the predominant choice for both deterministic and stochastic sequential models. However, autoregressive feedback exposes the evolution of the…
Multistate Markov models are a canonical parametric approach for data modeling of observed or latent stochastic processes supported on a finite state space. Continuous-time Markov processes describe data that are observed irregularly over…