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In this paper we create a compartmental, stochastic process model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, where the process's mean and variance have distinct dynamics. The model is fit to time series data from Washington from January 2020 to March 2021…
Major interventions have been introduced worldwide to slow down the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Large-scale lockdowns of human movements are effective in reducing the spread, but they come at a cost of significantly limited societal…
Contact-tracing apps have potential benefits in helping health authorities to act swiftly to halt the spread of COVID-19. However, their effectiveness is heavily dependent on their installation rate, which may be influenced by people's…
COVID-19 has caused lasting damage to almost every domain in public health, society, and economy. To monitor the pandemic trend, existing studies rely on the aggregation of traditional statistical models and epidemic spread theory. In other…
The control of the COVID-19 pandemic requires a considerable reduction of contacts mostly achieved by imposing movement control up to the level of enforced quarantine. This has lead to a collapse of substantial parts of the economy.…
Social distancing strategies have been adopted by governments to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, since the first outbreak began. However, further epidemic waves keep out the return of economic and social activities to their standard levels of…
Many people around the world are worried about using or even downloading COVID-19 contact tracing mobile apps. The main reported concerns are centered around privacy and ethical issues. At the same time, people are voluntarily using Social…
Maintaining social distancing norms between humans has become an indispensable precaution to slow down the transmission of COVID-19. We present a novel method to automatically detect pairs of humans in a crowded scenario who are not…
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is unfolding as a major international crisis whose influence extends to every aspect of our daily lives. Effective testing allows infected individuals to be quarantined, thus reducing the…
Contact tracing systems control the spread of disease by discovering the set of people an infectious individual has come into contact with. Students are often mobile and sociable and therefore can contribute to the spread of disease.…
The rapid spread of COVID-19 has made manual contact tracing difficult. Thus, various public health authorities have experimented with automatic contact tracing using mobile applications (or "apps"). These apps, however, have raised…
Data describing human interactions often suffer from incomplete sampling of the underlying population. As a consequence, the study of contagion processes using data-driven models can lead to a severe underestimation of the epidemic risk.…
Understanding the spread of diseases through complex networks is of great interest where realistic, heterogeneous contact patterns play a crucial role in the spread. Most works have focused on mean-field behavior -- quantifying how contact…
Social dynamics is concerned primarily with interactions among individuals and the resulting group behaviors, modeling the temporal evolution of social systems via the interactions of individuals within these systems. In particular, the…
The spread of COVID-19 caused by the recently discovered SARS-CoV-2 virus has become a worldwide problem with devastating consequences. To slow down the spread of the pandemic, mass quarantines have been implemented globally, provoking…
By equipping a previously reported dynamic causal model of COVID-19 with an isolation state, we modelled the effects of self-isolation consequent on tracking and tracing. Specifically, we included a quarantine or isolation state occupied by…
The collection of updated data on social contact patterns following the COVID-19 pandemic disruptions is crucial for future epidemiological assessments and evaluating non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) based on physical distancing. We…
The COVID-19 crisis represents the most dangerous threat to public health since the H1N1 influenza pandemic of 1918. So far, the disease due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been countered with extreme measures at national level that attempt to…
In light of the continuing emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccines, we create a simulation framework for exploring possible infection trajectories under various scenarios. The situations of primary interest involve the interaction…
Susceptible-Invective-Recovered (SIR) mathematical models are in high demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They are used in their standard formulation, or through the many variants, trying to fit and hopefully predict the number of new…