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Consider the classical supervised learning problem: we are given data $(y_i,{\boldsymbol x}_i)$, $i\le n$, with $y_i$ a response and ${\boldsymbol x}_i\in {\mathcal X}$ a covariates vector, and try to learn a model $f:{\mathcal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-27 Song Mei , Theodor Misiakiewicz , Andrea Montanari

Regularization is an essential element of virtually all kernel methods for nonparametric regression problems. A critical factor in the effectiveness of a given kernel method is the type of regularization that is employed. This article…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-31 Lee H. Dicker , Dean P. Foster , Daniel Hsu

Continual learning is motivated by the need to adapt to real-world dynamics in tasks and data distribution while mitigating catastrophic forgetting. Despite significant advances in continual learning techniques, the theoretical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-22 Yihan Zhao , Wenqing Su , Ying Yang

We study double descent and benign overfitting in macroeconomic forecasting. We document that double-descent risk curves arise in standard macroeconomic datasets that are driven by a small number of latent factors, and we characterize when…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-18 Andrea Carriero , Florian Huber , Davide Pettenuzzo

We investigate the properties of random feature ridge regression (RFRR) given by a two-layer neural network with random Gaussian initialization. We study the non-asymptotic behaviors of the RFRR with nearly orthogonal deterministic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-15 Zhichao Wang , Yizhe Zhu

In their thought-provoking paper [1], Belkin et al. illustrate and discuss the shape of risk curves in the context of modern high-complexity learners. Given a fixed training sample size $n$, such curves show the risk of a learner as a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-08 Marco Loog , Tom Viering , Alexander Mey , Jesse H. Krijthe , David M. J. Tax

We derive new bounds for the condition number of kernel matrices, which we then use to enhance existing non-asymptotic test error bounds for kernel ridgeless regression (KRR) in the over-parameterized regime for a fixed input dimension. For…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-31 Tin Sum Cheng , Aurelien Lucchi , Anastasis Kratsios , David Belius

From benign overfitting in overparameterized models to rich power-law scalings in performance, simple ridge regression displays surprising behaviors sometimes thought to be limited to deep neural networks. This balance of phenomenological…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Alexander Atanasov , Jacob A. Zavatone-Veth , Cengiz Pehlevan

In this paper, the flexibility, versatility and predictive power of kernel regression are combined with now lavishly available network data to create regression models with even greater predictive performances. Building from previous work…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-05 E. Pei , E. Fokoué

Double-descent curves in neural networks describe the phenomenon that the generalisation error initially descends with increasing parameters, then grows after reaching an optimal number of parameters which is less than the number of data…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-05-29 Ouns El Harzli , Bernardo Cuenca Grau , Guillermo Valle-Pérez , Ard A. Louis

Distributed learning is an effective way to analyze big data. In distributed regression, a typical approach is to divide the big data into multiple blocks, apply a base regression algorithm on each of them, and then simply average the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-08 Zhengchu Guo , Lei Shi , Qiang Wu

The risk of overparameterized models, in particular deep neural networks, is often double-descent shaped as a function of the model size. Recently, it was shown that the risk as a function of the early-stopping time can also be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-06 Fatih Furkan Yilmaz , Reinhard Heckel

A recent line of work studies overparametrized neural networks in the "kernel regime," i.e. when the network behaves during training as a kernelized linear predictor, and thus training with gradient descent has the effect of finding the…

Kernel ridge regression (KRR) is a foundational tool in machine learning, with recent work emphasizing its connections to neural networks. However, existing theory primarily addresses the i.i.d. setting, while real-world data often exhibits…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-20 Dechen Zhang , Zhenmei Shi , Yi Zhang , Yingyu Liang , Difan Zou

Random matrix theory has become a widely useful tool in high-dimensional statistics and theoretical machine learning. However, random matrix theory is largely focused on the proportional asymptotics in which the number of columns grows…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-23 Chen Cheng , Andrea Montanari

We propose a framework to construct practical kernel-based two-sample tests from the family of $f$-divergences. The test statistic is computed from the witness function of a regularized variational representation of the divergence, which we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-28 Mónica Ribero , Antonin Schrab , Arthur Gretton

Modern neural networks are often operated in a strongly overparametrized regime: they comprise so many parameters that they can interpolate the training set, even if actual labels are replaced by purely random ones. Despite this, they…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-10 Andrea Montanari , Yiqiao Zhong

Characterization of local minima draws much attention in theoretical studies of deep learning. In this study, we investigate the distribution of parameters in an over-parametrized finite neural network trained by ridge regularized empirical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-22 Sho Sonoda , Isao Ishikawa , Masahiro Ikeda

Feature learning in neural networks is crucial for their expressive power and inductive biases, motivating various theoretical approaches. Some approaches describe network behavior after training through a change in kernel scale from…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2025-05-29 Noa Rubin , Kirsten Fischer , Javed Lindner , David Dahmen , Inbar Seroussi , Zohar Ringel , Michael Krämer , Moritz Helias

Kernel ridge regression, KRR, is a generalization of linear ridge regression that is non-linear in the data, but linear in the model parameters. Here, we introduce an equivalent formulation of the objective function of KRR, which opens up…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-10 Oskar Allerbo