Related papers: Bayesian Optimized Event Based Epidemic Modeling i…
A model of the spread of viruses in selected city and in a network of cities is considered, taking into account the delay caused by the long incubation period of the virus. The effect of delay effects is shown in comparison with pandemics…
The recent outbreak of COVID-19 has affected millions of individuals around the world and has posed a significant challenge to global healthcare. From the early days of the pandemic, it became clear that it is highly contagious and that…
Accurate forecasts of COVID-19 is central to resource management and building strategies to deal with the epidemic. We propose a heterogeneous infection rate model with human mobility for epidemic modeling, a preliminary version of which we…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
This paper combines a canonical epidemiology model of disease dynamics with government policy of lockdown and testing, and agents' decision to social distance in order to avoid getting infected. The model is calibrated with data on deaths…
Epidemic spreading often occurs in spatially heterogeneous environments, yet how quenched heterogeneity reshapes its onset and critical dynamics remains poorly understood. The diffusive epidemic process, a minimal reaction-diffusion model…
Since the start of the still ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, there have been many modeling efforts to assess several issues of importance to public health. In this work, we review the theory behind some important mathematical models that have…
This paper introduces a microscopic approach to model epidemics, which can explicitly consider the consequences of individual's decisions on the spread of the disease. We first formulate a microscopic multi-agent epidemic model where every…
The emergence of an epidemic evokes the need to monitor its spread and assess and validate any mitigation measures enacted by governments and administrative bodies in real time. We present here a method to observe and quantify this spread…
The advent of the COVID-19 pandemic has instigated unprecedented changes in many countries around the globe, putting a significant burden on the health sectors, affecting the macro economic conditions, and altering social interactions…
After the breakout of the disease caused by the new virus COVID-19, the mitigation stage has been reached in most of the countries in the world. During this stage, a more accurate data analysis of the daily reported cases and other…
The COronaVIrus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that has had the world in its grip from the beginning of 2020, has resulted in an unprecedented level of public interest and media attention on the field of mathematical epidemiology. Ever…
Over the past two decades there has been a number of global outbreaks of viral diseases. This has accelerated the efforts to model and forecast the disease spreading, in order to find ways to confine the spreading regionally and between…
Understanding how to effectively control an epidemic spreading on a network is a problem of paramount importance for the scientific community. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for policies that mitigate the spread,…
Public special events, like sports games, concerts and festivals are well known to create disruptions in transportation systems, often catching the operators by surprise. Although these are usually planned well in advance, their impact is…
We create a network model to study the spread of an epidemic through physically proximate and accidental daily human contacts in a city, and simulate outcomes for two kinds of agents - poor and non-poor. Under non-intervention, peak…
Epidemics-inspired techniques have received huge attention in recent years from the distributed systems and networking communities. These algorithms and protocols rely on probabilistic message replication and redundancy to ensure reliable…
During the Covid-19 pandemic, most governments across the world imposed policies like lock-down of public spaces and restrictions on people's movements to minimize the spread of the virus through physical contact. However, such policies…
Since its outbreak, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented losses to human lives and economies around the world. As of 18th July 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) has reported more than 13 million confirmed cases…
One of the major issues in the theoretical modeling of epidemic spreading is the development of methods to control the transmission of an infectious agent. Human behavior plays a fundamental role in the spreading dynamics and can be used to…