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A multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for quantifying model-form uncertainties associated with the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations is presented. Two, high-dimensional, stochastic extensions of the RANS equations are…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-11-05 Prashant Kumar , Martin Schmelzer , Richard P. Dwight

We consider stochastic optimization when one only has access to biased stochastic oracles of the objective and the gradient, and obtaining stochastic gradients with low biases comes at high costs. This setting captures various optimization…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-08-22 Yifan Hu , Jie Wang , Xin Chen , Niao He

Accurate and efficient estimation of rare events probabilities is of significant importance, since often the occurrences of such events have widespread impacts. The focus in this work is on precisely quantifying these probabilities, often…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-23 Konstantinos G. Papakonstantinou , Hamed Nikbakht , Elsayed Eshra

We develop a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) framework for uncertainty quantification with Monte Carlo dropout. Treating dropout masks as a source of epistemic randomness, we define a fidelity hierarchy by the number of stochastic forward…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Aaron Pim , Tristan Pryer

In this work, we present, analyze, and implement a class of Multi-Level Markov chain Monte Carlo (ML-MCMC) algorithms based on independent Metropolis-Hastings proposals for Bayesian inverse problems. In this context, the likelihood function…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-05-06 Juan Pablo Madrigal-Cianci , Fabio Nobile , Raul Tempone

We consider the problem of simulating loss probabilities and conditional excesses for linear asset portfolios under the t-copula model. Although in the literature on market risk management there are papers proposing efficient variance…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-08-07 Halis Sak , İsmail Başoğlu

Fitting stochastic kinetic models represented by Markov jump processes within the Bayesian paradigm is complicated by the intractability of the observed data likelihood. There has therefore been considerable attention given to the design of…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-04 Andrew Golightly , Theodore Kypraios

We study efficient solution methods for stochastic eigenvalue problems arising from discretization of self-adjoint partial differential equations with random data. With the stochastic Galerkin approach, the solutions are represented as…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-03-13 Howard C. Elman , Tengfei Su

We propose a multilevel stochastic approximation (MLSA) scheme for the computation of the value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) of a financial loss, which can only be computed via simulations conditionally on the realisation of…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-14 Stéphane Crépey , Noufel Frikha , Azar Louzi

An extension of the synchronous parallel kinetic Monte Carlo (pkMC) algorithm developed by Martinez {\it et al} [{\it J.\ Comp.\ Phys.} {\bf 227} (2008) 3804] to discrete lattices is presented. The method solves the master equation…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-19 Enrique Martinez , Paul R Monasterio , Jaime Marian

In this paper the application of the multi-level Monte Carlo (MLMC) method on numerical simulations of turbulent flows with uncertain parameters is investigated. Several strategies for setting up the MLMC method are presented, and the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-22 Qingsha Chen , Ju Ming

In this article we study examples of systematic biases that can occur in quantum Monte Carlo methods due to the accumulation of non-linear expectation values, and approaches by which these errors can be corrected. We begin with a study of…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2018-08-15 Nick S. Blunt , Ali Alavi , George H. Booth

This paper concerns error bounds for recursive equations subject to Markovian disturbances. Motivating examples abound within the fields of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and Reinforcement Learning (RL), and many of these algorithms can be…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-10 Shuhang Chen , Adithya M. Devraj , Ana Bušić , Sean Meyn

Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) reduces the total computational cost of financial option pricing by combining SDE approximations with multiple resolutions. This paper explores a further avenue for reducing cost and improving power efficiency…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-02-12 Irina-Beatrice Haas , Michael B. Giles

In this paper, we propose a model reduction method for solving multiscale elliptic PDEs with random coefficients in the multiquery setting using an optimization approach. The optimization approach enables us to construct a set of localized…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-07-09 Thomas Y. Hou , Dingjiong Ma , Zhiwen Zhang

We introduce the multivariate decomposition finite element method for elliptic PDEs with lognormal diffusion coefficient $a=\exp(Z)$ where $Z$ is a Gaussian random field defined by an infinite series expansion $Z(\boldsymbol{y}) =…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-09-28 Dong T. P. Nguyen , Dirk Nuyens

Recently, Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) methods have been proposed for scaling up Monte Carlo computations to large data problems. Whilst these approaches have proven useful in many applications, vanilla SG-MCMC…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-12-13 Umut Şimşekli , Roland Badeau , A. Taylan Cemgil , Gaël Richard

In this work, a new class of stochastic gradient algorithm is developed based on $q$-calculus. Unlike the existing $q$-LMS algorithm, the proposed approach fully utilizes the concept of $q$-calculus by incorporating time-varying $q$…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-01-03 Shujaat Khan , Alishba Sadiq , Imran Naseem , Roberto Togneri , Mohammed Bennamoun

In the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for sequential simulations such as the neural stochastic differential equations, the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method is known to offer better theoretical computational complexity compared to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-11 Kei Ishikawa

Monte Carlo methods are widely used for approximating complicated, multidimensional integrals for Bayesian inference. Population Monte Carlo (PMC) is an important class of Monte Carlo methods, which utilizes a population of proposals to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-30 Chaofan Huang , V. Roshan Joseph , Simon Mak
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