Related papers: Containing a pandemic: Nonpharmaceutical intervent…
We identify the effectiveness of social distancing policies in reducing the transmission of the COVID-19 spread. We build a model that measures the relative frequency and geographic distribution of the virus growth rate and provides…
Many countries have experienced at least two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. The second wave is far more dangerous as distinct strains appear more harmful to human health, but it stems from the complacency about the first wave. This paper…
This technical report describes a dynamic causal model of the spread of coronavirus through a population. The model is based upon ensemble or population dynamics that generate outcomes, like new cases and deaths over time. The purpose of…
The COVID-19 pandemic created enormous public health and socioeconomic challenges. The health effects of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were often contrasted with significant social and economic costs. We describe a…
We present two models for the COVID-19 pandemic predicting the impact of universal face mask wearing upon the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus--one employing a stochastic dynamic network based compartmental SEIR…
Non-pharmaceutical measures such as social distancing, can play an important role to control an epidemic in the absence of vaccinations. In this paper, we study the impact of social distancing on epidemics for which it is executable. We use…
A number of models in mathematical epidemiology have been developed to account for control measures such as vaccination or quarantine. However, COVID-19 has brought unprecedented social distancing measures, with a challenge on how to…
Recurrent waves which are often observed during long pandemics typically form as a result of several interrelated dynamics including public health interventions, population mobility and behaviour, varying disease transmissibility due to…
The sudden and rapid spread of the COVID_19 pandemic with its terrible consequences has put the management of governments and the various world institutions into a crisis. They have been subjected to a considerable economic effort to be…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has exerted a profound impact on patients with end-stage renal disease relying on kidney dialysis to sustain their lives. Motivated by a request by the U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid…
The novel COVID-19 pandemic is a current, major global health threat. Up till now, there is no fully approved pharmacological treatment or a vaccine. In this study, simple mathematical models were employed to examine the dynamics of…
The need to understand how infection spreads to the deep lung was acutely realized during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. The challenge of modeling virus laden aerosol transport and deposition in…
Epidemic spreading can be suppressed by the introduction of containment measures such as social distancing and lock downs. Yet, when such measures are relaxed, new epidemic waves and infection cycles may occur. Here we explore this issue in…
Understanding the number of individuals who have been infected with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, and the extent to which social distancing policies have been effective at limiting its spread, are critical for effective policy going…
The last three years have been an extraordinary time with the Covid-19 pandemic killing millions, affecting and distressing billions of people worldwide. Authorities took various measures such as turning school and work to remote and…
COVID-19 disease, caused by SARS-CoV-2, has resulted in a global pandemic recently. With no approved vaccination or treatment, governments around the world have issued guidance to their citizens to remain at home in efforts to control the…
The COVID-19 crisis has shown that we can only prevent the risk of mass contagion through timely, large-scale, coordinated, and decisive actions. However, frequently the models used by experts [from whom decision-makers get their main…
The effect of masking the general population on a COVID-19 epidemic is estimated by computer simulation using two separate state-of-the-art web-based softwares, one of them calibrated for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The questions addressed are…
In this study, we present a new epidemiological model, with contamination from confirmed and unreported. We also compute equilibria and study their stability without intervention strategies. Optimal control theory has proven to be a…
In this paper, we propose a two-group SIR epidemic model to simulate the outcome of stay-at-home policy and wearing face masks during the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in the United States. Based on our proposed model, we further use the…