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Cross-validation (CV) is known to provide asymptotically exact tests and confidence intervals for model improvement but only when the model comparison is relatively stable. Surprisingly, we prove that even simple, individually stable models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-10 Alexandre Bayle , Lucas Janson , Lester Mackey

A general framework is that the estimators of a distribution are obtained by minimizing a function (the estimating function) and they are assessed through another function (the assessment function). The estimating and assessment functions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-14 Daniel Commenges , Cécile Proust-Lima , Cécilia Samieri , Benoit Liquet

We study estimator selection and hyper-parameter tuning in off-policy evaluation. Although cross-validation is the most popular method for model selection in supervised learning, off-policy evaluation relies mostly on theory, which provides…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Matej Cief , Branislav Kveton , Michal Kompan

Decoding, ie prediction from brain images or signals, calls for empirical evaluation of its predictive power. Such evaluation is achieved via cross-validation, a method also used to tune decoders' hyper-parameters. This paper is a review on…

Predictive mean matching (PMM) is a popular imputation strategy that imputes missing values by borrowing observed values from other cases with similar expectations. We show that, unlike other imputation strategies, PMM is not guaranteed to…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Paul T. von Hippel

While many statistical models and methods are now available for network analysis, resampling network data remains a challenging problem. Cross-validation is a useful general tool for model selection and parameter tuning, but is not directly…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-04 Tianxi Li , Elizaveta Levina , Ji Zhu

Many versions of cross-validation (CV) exist in the literature; and each version though has different variants. All are used interchangeably by many practitioners; yet, without explanation to the connection or difference among them. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-31 Waleed A. Yousef

Missing data are often dealt with multiple imputation. A crucial part of the multiple imputation process is selecting sensible models to generate plausible values for incomplete data. A method based on posterior predictive checking is…

Computation · Statistics 2026-05-14 Mingyang Cai , Stef van Buuren , Gerko Vink

Conformal Prediction (CP) algorithms estimate the uncertainty of a prediction model by calibrating its outputs on labeled data. The same calibration scheme usually applies to any model and data without modifications. The obtained prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-27 Nicolo Colombo

Classification is one of the main areas of pattern recognition research, and within it, Support Vector Machine (SVM) is one of the most popular methods outside of field of deep learning -- and a de-facto reference for many Machine Learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-23 Michał Cholewa , Michał Romaszewski , Przemysław Głomb

Multi-view clustering (MVC) aims to explore the common clustering structure across multiple views. Many existing MVC methods heavily rely on the assumption of view consistency, where alignments for corresponding samples across different…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Xihong Yang , Siwei Wang , Jiaqi Jin , Fangdi Wang , Tianrui Liu , Yueming Jin , Xinwang Liu , En Zhu , Kunlun He

We consider prediction in multiple studies with potential differences in the relationships between predictors and outcomes. Our objective is to integrate data from multiple studies to develop prediction models for unseen studies. We propose…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-23 Boyu Ren , Prasad Patil , Francesca Dominici , Giovanni Parmigiani , Lorenzo Trippa

Missing time-series data is a prevalent practical problem. Imputation methods in time-series data often are applied to the full panel data with the purpose of training a model for a downstream out-of-sample task. For example, in finance,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-13 Jose Blanchet , Fernando Hernandez , Viet Anh Nguyen , Markus Pelger , Xuhui Zhang

It is useful to estimate the expected predictive performance of models planned to be used for prediction. We focus on leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV), which has become a popular method for estimating predictive performance of…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-29 Tuomas Sivula , Måns Magnusson , Asael Alonzo Matamoros , Aki Vehtari

Variational Bayesian (VB) methods produce posterior inference in a time frame considerably smaller than traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo approaches. Although the VB posterior is an approximation, it has been shown to produce good…

Computation · Statistics 2019-08-02 Nathaniel Tomasetti , Catherine S. Forbes , Anastasios Panagiotelis

Probabilistic regression models typically use the Maximum Likelihood Estimation or Cross-Validation to fit parameters. These methods can give an advantage to the solutions that fit observations on average, but they do not pay attention to…

Applications · Statistics 2022-05-24 Naoufal Acharki , Antoine Bertoncello , Josselin Garnier

Recently many regularized estimators of large covariance matrices have been proposed, and the tuning parameters in these estimators are usually selected via cross-validation. However, there is no guideline on the number of folds for…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-16 Yixin Fang , Binhuan Wang , Yang Feng

Confusion matrices and derived metrics provide a comprehensive framework for the evaluation of model performance in machine learning. These are well-known and extensively employed in the supervised learning domain, particularly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Pablo Andretta Jaskowiak , Ivan Gesteira Costa

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-26 Promit Chakroborty , Somayajulu L. N. Dhulipala , Michael D. Shields

Use of prediction models is widely recommended by clinical guidelines, but usually requires complete information on all predictors that is not always available in daily practice. We describe two methods for real-time handling of missing…