Related papers: How Macroeconomists Lost Control of Stabilization …
Many macroeconomic policy questions may be assessed in a case study framework, where the time series of a treated unit is compared to a counterfactual constructed from a large pool of control units. I provide a general framework for this…
This paper offers a synthesis of the empirical literature on the effects of monetary policy. Using the findings from an extensive collection of meta-analyses, it evaluates the effectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy…
Macroeconomic theories of growth and wealth distribution have an outsized influence on national and international social and economic policies. Yet, due to a relative lack of reliable, system wide data, many such theories remain, at best,…
The financial turmoil surrounding the Great Recession called for unprecedented intervention by Central Banks: unconventional policies affected various areas in the economy, including stock market volatility. In order to evaluate such…
This paper brings together divergent approaches to time inconsistency from macroeconomic policy and behavioural economics. Behavioural discount functions from behavioural microeconomics are embedded into a game-theoretic analysis of…
The study of heavy-tailed distributions in economic and financial systems has been widely addressed since financial time series has become a research subject.After the eighties, several "highly improbable" market drops were observed (e.g.…
A number of macroeconomic theories, very popular in the 1980s, seem to have completely disappeared and been replaced by the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach. We will argue that this replacement is due to a tacit…
We extend in a minimal way the stylized model introduced in in "Tipping Points in Macroeconomic Agent Based Models" [JEDC 50, 29-61 (2015)], with the aim of investigating the role and efficacy of monetary policy of a `Central Bank' that…
Will a large economy be stable? Building on Robert May's original argument for large ecosystems, we conjecture that evolutionary and behavioural forces conspire to drive the economy towards marginal stability. We study networks of firms in…
Counterfactual estimation using synthetic controls is one of the most successful recent methodological developments in causal inference. Despite its popularity, the current description only considers time series aligned across units and…
We discuss several models in order to shed light on the origin of power-law distributions and power-law correlations in financial time series. From an empirical point of view, the exponents describing the tails of the price increments…
Over fifty years ago, Robert May applied random matrix theory to show that as ecological systems grow in size, stability decreases. What emerged from this and the critique that followed was decades of what has been called the…
We study how a central bank should dynamically set short-term nominal interest rates to stabilize inflation and unemployment when macroeconomic relationships are uncertain and time-varying. We model monetary policy as a sequential…
A default assumption in reinforcement learning (RL) and optimal control is that observations arrive at discrete time points on a fixed clock cycle. Yet, many applications involve continuous-time systems where the time discretization, in…
Power law distributions of macroscopic observables are ubiquitous in both the natural and social sciences. They are indicative of correlated, cooperative phenomena between groups of interacting agents at the microscopic level. In this paper…
Control for confounders in observational studies was generally handled through stratification and standardization until the 1960s. Standardization typically reweights the stratum-specific rates so that exposure categories become comparable.…
In a continuous time stochastic economy, this paper considers the problem of consumption and investment in a financial market in which the representative investor exhibits a change in the discount rate. The investment opportunities are a…
In this work was researched the problems of classicalization and measurement unifying them in a single problem: the problem of collapse, for this purpose was developed a working program -- the classicalization's program -- in an…
The monetary transmission channel is disrupted by many factors, especially securitization and liquidity traps. In our study we try to estimate the effect of securitization on the interest elasticity and to identify if a liquidity trap…
We propose a new Bayesian heteroskedastic Markov-switching structural vector autoregression with data-driven time-varying identification. The model selects alternative exclusion restrictions over time and, as a condition for the search,…