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This Element offers a practical guide to estimating conditional marginal effects-how treatment effects vary with a moderating variable-using modern statistical methods. Commonly used approaches, such as linear interaction models, often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-21 Jiehan Liu , Ziyi Liu , Yiqing Xu

We demonstrate a comprehensive semiparametric approach to causal mediation analysis, addressing the complexities inherent in settings with longitudinal and continuous treatments, confounders, and mediators. Our methodology utilizes a…

Estimating the causal effects of an intervention in the presence of confounding is a frequently occurring problem in applications such as medicine. The task is challenging since there may be multiple confounding factors, some of which may…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-28 Sonali Parbhoo , Mario Wieser , Volker Roth

Background: A core aspect of epidemiology is determining the impacts of potential public health interventions over time. With long follow-up periods, epidemiologists may need to consider semi-competing events, in which a terminal event,…

The goal of causal mediation analysis, often described within the potential outcomes framework, is to decompose the effect of an exposure on an outcome of interest along different causal pathways. Using the assumption of sequential…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-09 Lexi Rene , Antonio R. Linero , Elizabeth Slate

We propose an empirically stable and asymptotically efficient covariate-balancing approach to the problem of estimating survival causal effects in data with conditionally-independent censoring. This addresses a challenge often encountered…

Causal mediation analysis is complicated with multiple effect definitions that require different sets of assumptions for identification. This paper provides a systematic explanation of such assumptions. We define five potential outcome…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-26 Trang Quynh Nguyen , Ian Schmid , Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Elizabeth A. Stuart

Typical causal effects are defined based on the marginal distribution of potential outcomes. However, many real-world applications require causal estimands involving the joint distribution of potential outcomes to enable more nuanced…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-17 Peng Wu , Xiaojie Mao

Electronic Health Record (EHR) has emerged as a valuable source of data for translational research. To leverage EHR data for risk prediction and subsequently clinical decision support, clinical endpoints are often time to onset of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-07 Yang Wang , Qingning Zhou , Tianxi Cai , Xuan Wang

Continuous outcome measurements truncated by death present a challenge for the estimation of unbiased treatment effects in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). One way to deal with such situations is to estimate the survivor average causal…

To precisely define the treatment effect of interest in a clinical trial, the ICH E9 estimand addendum describes that relevant so-called intercurrent events should be identified and strategies specified to deal with them. Handling…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-06 Camila Olarte Parra , Rhian M. Daniel , Jonathan W. Bartlett

When interested in a time-to-event outcome, competing events that prevent the occurrence of the event of interest may be present. In the presence of competing events, various statistical estimands have been suggested for defining the causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-09 Elisavet Syriopoulou , Sarwar I Mozumder , Mark J Rutherford , Paul C Lambert

This paper deals with the state estimation problem in discrete-event systems modeled with nondeterministic finite automata, partially observed via a sensor measuring unit whose measurements (reported observations) may be vitiated by a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-11-04 Yuting Li , Christoforos N. Hadjicostis , Naiqi Wu , Zhiwu Li

We propose a semiparametric data fusion framework for efficient inference on survival probabilities by integrating right-censored and current status data. Existing data fusion methods focus largely on fusing right-censored data only, while…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-15 Xiudi Li , Sijia Li

Under a composite estimand strategy, the occurrence of the intercurrent event is incorporated into the endpoint definition, for instance by assigning a poor outcome value to patients who experience the event. Composite strategies are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-01 Brennan C Kahan , Tra My Pham , Conor Tweed , Tim P Morris

Mediation analysis allows one to use observational data to estimate the importance of each potential mediating pathway involved in the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome. However, current approaches to mediation analysis with…

Causal mediation analysis decomposes the total treatment effect into a portion operating through a hypothesized mediator and a residual direct portion. Identification of natural direct and indirect effects typically rests on the mediator…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-19 Yuki Ohnishi , Fan Li

New methods and theory have recently been developed to nonparametrically estimate cumulative incidence functions for competing risks survival data subject to current status censoring. In particular, the limiting distribution of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-01-12 Marloes H. Maathuis , Michael G. Hudgens

Time-to-event semi-competing risk endpoints may be correlated when both events are occurring on the same individual. These events and the association between them may also be influenced by individual characteristics. In this paper, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-07 Yinghui Wei , Malgorzata Wojtys , Lexy Sorrell , Peter Rowe

Causal mediation analysis has been extended to estimate path-specific effects with multiple intermediate variables, isolating treatment effects through a mediator of interest while excluding pathways through its ancestors. Such analyses…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-12 Yang Bai , Sihan Wu , Baoluo Sun , Yifan Cui
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